A scientific team notes that based on climate data that has been modeled, the chance of temperatures exceeding 40 degrees in the UK in any given year is now one in 100 from one in 1,000
London, Thanasis Gavos
The historic heatwave experienced by Britain earlier in the month, with the mercury surpassing for the first time 40 degrees Celsiushad become at least ten times more likely than in previous decades due to climate change, a new study concludes.
The study by the scientific group WWA notes that based on the climate data that has been modeled the probability of temperatures exceeding 40 degrees in the UK in any year is now one in 100 to one in 1,000 which was in the pre-global warming era.
This research team analyzes real-time weather events to determine to what extent they can be attributed to climate change.
The study adds that the extreme heat will have caused hundreds of deaths in Britain. Official figures for deaths attributable to the heatwave have not yet been released.
WWA estimates that during the two-day peak of the heat wave on July 18 and 19, there must have been at least 840 deaths in England and Wales in addition to the deaths that occur on average each year during the same period.
The analysis of weather data highlights that the temperatures recorded in some parts of Britain in the middle of the month would have been “statistically impossible” if the planet had not warmed by 1.2 degrees Celsius since the late 19th century.
The study involved 21 researchers who compared meteorological records and analyzed trends over the past decades in UK temperatures.
The computer simulation model used by the researchers estimates that the temperature during the heat wave was 2 degrees Celsius higher due to climate change. Based on the meteorological records, however, the increase in temperature due to global warming was probably on the order of 4 degrees Celsius.
In light of this, the researchers’ central finding of a tenfold chance of such a historic heat wave due to climate change is probably a “conservative estimate”.
View the news feed and get the latest news.
