Fifteen days after the scandalous presentation of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) to ambassadors, the United States sent a triple military, legal and economic message.
On a visit to Brazil, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke of “devotion to democracy”, implying that military cooperation would be interrupted if the Brazilian Armed Forces joined the coup. In turn, the US Congressional Inquiry Commission signaled the possibility of including Bolsonarism in the investigations against Donald Trump.
Finally, in this period it also became clear that Faria Lima would have to choose between the Ipiranga Post and the Swift system, as institutional rupture would be synonymous with alienation of the financial system. This explains the number of newly converted businessmen who rushed to sign the pro-democracy letter.
The contrast between Washington’s messages in 2022 and 1964 did not go unnoticed. The main guarantor of the overthrow of the Brazilian civil government 50 years ago may now have played a decisive role in its preservation.
History will certainly highlight the role of Brazilian civil society, but also of American political leaders. Bernie Sanders, for example, is not just a sympathetic left figure linked to the Democratic Party. He is the chairman of the budget committee, the most powerful in the Senate.
But the US pro-democracy turn is also related to a new geopolitical orientation. Under Trump, policy for the region was marked by the maddening attempt to get Juan Guiadó in Venezuela and the absence of leadership during the pandemic. Faced with the advance of Chinese and Russian interests in this period, Biden was forced to recognize that American hegemony in the region is only partial.
In this context, tolerance of democratic, but not necessarily aligned, regimes offers a better cost-benefit than uncertain attempts at political interference.
The likely arrival of a new Lula government fits into this general strategy, but it has its specificities. The prospect of having Brasilia independent but committed to multilateralism is obviously more attractive to Washington than the erratic and incompetent one that has been the case for the past four years.
Added to this is the fact that the Bolsonaro government’s coup agenda is seen as a threat to national security. A “Capitol in Brasilia” would be presented as a personal victory by Trump and would give strength to Republicans who plan to challenge the legitimacy of the polls.
If the last decade has taught us anything, it is that crises in democracy feed and reinforce each other. Contrary to 1964, the Democrats’ reading of Latin America is far from consensual within the American political class.
The victory of leftist candidates in Colombia, Chile and, probably, Brazil is already being denounced by Republicans as a defeat for the Democrats. In other words, the honeymoon between the US and democracy in Latin America came at just the right time, but it could be short-lived.
