The meeting called by President Jair Bolsonaro with ambassadors to promote his distrust of the electoral system was unable to convince his interlocutors of the conspiracy that the Brazilian says exists. For international observers, the Brazilian electoral system is one of the best in existence, and the meeting only served to show the world that the president is “desperate and mad”.
“Bolsonaro is desperate for external approval of what he wants to do,” explained professor of international relations at the University of Carleton in Canada, Sean Burges, in an interview with National Interest. According to him, while past governments focused on internal problems and reaped international recognition for the country’s advances, the current government fails at home and seeks support abroad.
The biggest problem, according to Burges, is that by advocating a military audit of elections and threatening democracy, he risks leading the country to the collapse of the international cooperation that guarantees Brazil’s sovereignty.
What did you think of Bolsonaro’s presentation to ambassadors? One of the things that struck me is that I think he really believes everything he says. They are approaching the issue of the electoral system as a matter of faith. And evidence is not relevant in matters of faith.
And is he managing to convince anyone else of his belief in the insecurity of the Brazilian electoral system? No, nobody believes. And the irony of that is, if you go anywhere involved in electoral studies in any serious way, and ask them to list the top five countries to run a poll the closest to perfection, Brazil will be on that list. The technology that Brazil uses is safe, clear, clean. Bolsonaro just showed himself to be desperate and mad. This strategy will not work.
And how much does this affect Brazil’s global positioning? It is important for the domestic audience.
The scary tipping point is that Bolsonaro wants the military to do an audit, basically a parallel count of votes. And I’m sure there are sectors in the Armed Forces very close to Bolsonaro who think this is a wonderful idea. If the generals get into this issue and do what Bolsonaro wants, there could be problems. They need to remember that their ability to protect Brazil is indeed highly dependent on international relations.
If the military intervenes, the first thing you’ll see is a sudden collapse of cooperation, especially with the United States. We will also see a likely collapse of the fighter purchase program as Sweden will not tolerate that either. Agreements for the purchase of weapons, negotiation for Brazil to have nuclear submarines. Everything will be interrupted. Joint training, joint missions, joint consultations, these are all going to disappear very quickly.
You are talking about the military, but this is also important in terms of diplomacy. What is the role of Itamaraty in this matter? Diplomats do what they’re told to do. Diplomats report to the Foreign Minister, who reports to the president. Itamaraty does not define Brazil’s foreign policy. It is true that, like the bureaucracy in charge of implementing it, he has a lot of weight in giving suggestions and ideas. But when a president says what must be done, they have to do it. The only alternative is to resign.
But can they also lose partnerships, like the military? When you deal with diplomats, there is a clear distinction between what the public official is saying and what the individual is saying. And there is clear recognition around the world that now is not a good time to interact with Brazil, as a madman is in charge. The perception is that there is no rationality or reason, and unpredictability is very high. Foreigners know that Brazil is there, and they know what the country’s capabilities are, they know about Itamaraty’s competence, but they simply can’t do anything for four years.
Can these relations return to normal if we have another president in 2023? Probably yes. It’s the same thing that happened to Trump. The whole world looked to the US and saw four years being thrown away, but relations soon returned to normal.
But the US has lost a lot of international credibility with Trump, and even with Biden there is still a struggle to convince people that some US positions are serious now. Yes, it’s true, but part of it is due to Congressional positions. I don’t think there’s a problem with what Biden himself says or what Biden’s State Department wants to do. The problem is your ability to make things happen, and that is an internal structural political issue.
Is it possible to understand how Brazil had conquered this international perception and how it changed? In Brazil, under Lula and FHC, the country focused on resolving internal issues, without paying attention to international opinion. Bolsonaro does not have that attitude. Bolsonaro is desperate for external approval of what he wants to do. I cannot think of any other Brazilian president who would have such a meeting.
It is curious that you say that FHC and Lula were focused on Brazil’s internal issues, as they received external applause for what they were doing. At the same time, Bolsonaro tries to get this approval, but sees the country’s image deteriorate… FHC and Lula got international approval because they were facing the country’s great challenges and they were succeeding. FHC controlled inflation, managed what could have been a catastrophic devaluation of the real, lifted huge numbers of people out of poverty and gave the next president the fiscal structure to do amazing things. Lula came in and renamed, repackaged and rebranded the transfer programs created by FHC and expanded their reach. The approval came from the successes that were happening with concrete domestic policies.
So, if we look at what Bolsonaro has done: total failure in the fight against Covid-19, poverty rates are rising, nothing has happened in terms of substantial investments in infrastructure and economic policies. He didn’t do anything relevant.
What are your expectations for the coming months in Brazil? It is clear that Bolsonaro will reject the results of the polls if he loses. Brazil will face a difficult journey. There does not seem to be a historical tendency in Brazil for people to kill themselves with political violence. And I think that’s the really troubling issue today.
