China took its first concrete military action in protest at the visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan: it sent 27 fighter jets across the strait that separates the island from its mainland.
At least 22 aircraft crossed the line dividing the area, which is 130 km at its narrowest point, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense. Taipei fighters were sent to intercept and fend them off.
This type of action is commonplace, serving for Beijing to test the speed of reaction of fighter jets and anti-aircraft defense systems on the island that it considers its own and promises to integrate into the communist dictatorship, peacefully or not.
But this Wednesday’s (3) took place shortly after Pelosi left the island, where she had arrived the night before to meet with officials and pro-democracy activists. Beijing had warned that it would not let the provocation, which it sees as a direct affront, go unanswered.
Initially, observers were betting on just that, an incursion. The one that took place was medium in size: the largest of all involved 52 aircraft, in October last year. But China will flex other muscles, having announced live-fire drills in six areas around Taiwan.
The island’s government says this is equivalent to a naval air blockade, forcing changes in international flight and ship routes. Beijing remains adamant, and says it will carry out the maneuvers from Thursday (4) to Saturday (6).
As a result, tension should continue in the region. US allies have already expressed displeasure over Pelosi’s trip, which went from Taiwan to South Korea and then to Japan.
Although united in their criticism of China, it is not in the interests of countries like Australia or Singapore to have a regional conflict, even more so at a time of global recession — courtesy, among other things, of the Ukrainian War triggered by Chinese ally Vladimir Putin and its inflationary impact. in energy and food.
The Joe Biden administration had suggested Pelosi not make the trip, although in the short term there could be benefits for her and the president’s Democratic Party, which faces tough congressional elections in November. For the government of Xi Jinping, who will win a third term in November, the balance in the reaction can galvanize domestic support without risking a war that would be disastrous.
Which is not to say that there are no risks in all of this. It only takes one plane shot down from side to side for the broth to spill. American and Chinese naval forces are on alert in waters near Taiwan, including with aircraft carriers from both countries.
The last time the situation was so tense was in the so-called Third Taiwan Strait Crisis, between 1995 and 1996, when a much weaker Beijing maneuvered with armed missiles around the island, but not surrounding it, after the Taiwanese president visited the USA. Now, however, despite the problems, Xi controls more powerful military resources.
