Kenya, one of the main economies in East Africa, goes to the polls on Tuesday (9) to elect the next president – in addition to legislature and regional governments – under the tension that the belligerent atmosphere seen in the last elections will again cause instability in the country. country.
The scenario for the succession of Uhuru Kenyatta, 60, who leaves power after ten years, is already looking troubled. The dispute has as favorites Raila Odinga, 77, a former rival of the current president, and William Ruto, 55, current vice president.
Contrary to what this provision makes it seem at first sight, the governing candidate is Odinga; the current president broke with his deputy shortly after the last elections and decided to support the rival he defeated five years ago, who is the son of his father’s deputy – Kenya’s first leader after independence in the 1960s.
Regardless of the result, the dispute can be decided in the courts of the country, since there is a great risk that the defeated candidate will contest the results, as has happened in recent elections.
In 2017, Odinga questioned the defeat for Kenyatta, and the Supreme Court ordered a new election, which confirmed the victory of the current president. Odinga had also contested the result ten years earlier, but the outcome was far more tense: ethnic conflicts spread and more than 1,100 people died in the country, with 600,000 having to leave their homes in the midst of a near-civil war scenario.
The question, by the way, is a key piece to understand the alliance that would form between the president and Ruto, since the two were accused of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court, in The Hague. “They realized that they had to come together to avoid arrest and argued that they could unite the Kalenjin and Kikuyu ethnic groups involved in the 2007 conflicts,” explains Ngala Chome, an analyst at Sahan Research, a Nairobi and London-based think tank.
The coalition, implemented with the 2013 ticket, yielded results, with the acquittal of both. Four years later, in re-election, Ruto and Kenyatta broke up, over mutual allegations of corruption and betrayal. The current president was even invited by Jair Bolsonaro (PL) for a visit to Brazil, which ended up not materializing; the two countries are part of the temporary seats in this UN Security Council mandate.
The current opposition candidate makes a point of not being from a traditional family in Kenyan politics, unlike his rivals. “Ruto presents himself as a threat to the system, he represents the aspiration of ordinary people for having managed to get rich even though he was not the son of anyone important”, says Ngala.
The latest polls, contested by Ruto, indicate a narrow victory for Raila Odinga. The former prime minister has run for the presidency four more times and now has the support of the ruling party. His campaign is centered on the proposal to create assistance programs: he promises to increase the budget allocated to the health of the poorest and pay US$ 50 (R$ 260) a month to families living below the poverty line (36% of the 56 million of Kenyans, according to the World Bank).
The economic crisis is the main theme of the elections. In addition to the consequences of Covid-19, Kenya is currently suffering from rising food and fuel prices, a trend boosted globally by the Ukrainian War. Added to this is unemployment, which affects more than a third of the country’s youth. “Historically, Kenyan politics has been ethnically focused, but that has changed. This election is about economics and ideology,” says Ken Gichinga, head of a Nairobi-based economic consultancy.
If Odinga aims at welfare, Ruto intends to move the economy by injecting money into agribusiness – Kenya’s main economic sector. The vice president’s wealth, by the way, is linked to corn plantations.
The winner will also have to deal with the country’s foreign debt, mainly linked to loans from China, which made the influence of the Asian country another theme in the campaign. Ruto, for example, has already threatened to deport Chinese owners of small retail businesses. “We have enough planes to send them back where they came from,” he said in June.
To win the first round, a candidate needs more than half of the votes in the country and at least 25% of the electorate in half of the counties. The two with the highest votes pass to the eventual second round. But, for Ngala, the election will have to be perfect so that the loser doesn’t take the results to the Supreme Court; in case this happens, the Justice can call new elections in 60 days. “That’s what Ruto wants, because anything can happen in two months.”
