The poll by the IPEC institute — formerly IBOPE — has 76-year-old Lula garnering 44% of voter intentions, compared to 32% for 67-year-old Jair Bolsonaro, ahead of the first round of the contest.
The center-left former president of Brazil, Luis, dominates by state Inacio Lula da Silva of the far-right current head of state Zach Bolsonaro ahead of the October 2 election. According to a poll released on Monday, Lula maintains a safe margin of 12 percentage points over Bolsonaro.
The poll by the IPEC institute — formerly IBOPE — has 76-year-old Lula garnering 44% of voter intentions, compared to 32% for 67-year-old Jair Bolsonaro, ahead of the first round of the contest.
In the second round which, based on this result, will need to be held on October 30, since neither will get the 50% plus one vote required for outright victory, Lula will be elected with 51% of the vote. against 35% of Jáich Bolsonaro, with a difference of 16 points, according to the same survey.
The center-left former president’s narrow lead is also being recorded in other polls, ahead of Brazil’s most polarized election in decades.
The lead has shrunk from 26 points in December to 18 in July, according to a poll by the benchmarking institute Datafolha. However, according to this survey as well, Lula still has a 20-point lead should he face the former paratrooper captain in the second round.
Mr Bolsonaro has increased social spending for the poorest Brazilians, which is believed to have helped boost his rate. He also put pressure on the state oil company Petrobras to lower fuel prices, which are a key factor in rising inflation.
According to polling firm Quaest, Mr Bolsonaro is reportedly tied with his opponent in the state of Sao Paulo, which turns out the most voters, while narrowing the gap in Minas Gerais, the state with the second largest number of voters.
However, another FSB poll conducted on behalf of investment bank BTG and also released on Monday showed the opposite that Mr Bolsonaro is losing ground (–4%), with the gap widening to 11%. Lula’s lead in the likely runoff also widened to 15 points, up from 12 in the previous such rolling survey.
Symbolic locations
In the IPEC poll, the percentage of citizens who approve of the outgoing president’s job performance rose to 29%, from just 19% in December, while the percentage of voters who think his government is performing poorly to horribly fell to 43% from 55% in the immediately preceding survey.
However, 57% of Brazilians disapprove of the far-right president’s way of governing, while only 37% approve of him, according to the poll, which was conducted by personal interviews with a sample of 2,000 voters from August 12 to 14 and has margin of statistical error ±2%.
The two gladiators start today Tuesday their official election campaigns in special locations for them. Luis Inacio Lula da Silva will visit a Volkswagen factory in San Bernardo do Campo, near his political stronghold of Sao Paulo, where he worked before becoming a union leader. While President Jair Bolsonaro will go to the state of Minas Gerais (southeast), in Juiz de Fora, where he almost lost his life when he was attacked with a knife by an unbalanced four years ago.
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