In the heat of the campaign, the most important moments sometimes go unnoticed. Days before his stint on Jornal Nacional, Lula announced a new diplomatic agenda by advocating that “elections be freer” in Venezuela. A change from his party’s traditional position of preaching respect for democratic rules by Venezuelan governments.
The two events could not be more intertwined. In 2018, the PT’s accusation of tolerance of the Maduro regime served as an argument for many moderate voters to annul the vote when they had to choose between an apologist for Carlos Brilhante Ustra and a Democrat. Lula chose to neutralize an issue that was doomed to return in the final weeks of the campaign.
In addition to the electoral imperative, the change in position on Venezuela is articulated around two strategic premises. The first is the opportunity provided by the failure of the continental right to manage the crisis in Venezuela over the past half-decade.
The attempt to bring about a downfall of the regime through an imposture, the international recognition of Juan Guaidó, has already gone down in history as the post-Cold War Bay of Pigs. The left now has the legitimacy to initiate a new approach that favors a regional solution to the Venezuelan crisis.
The second premise is the evident exhaustion of the Nicolás Maduro regime. His resistance to external pressures and the geopolitical changes brought about by the Ukrainian War preserved his authority. But no one believes that he is in a position to lift Venezuela out of the wreckage in which one of the most important exodus in Latin American history later finds itself.
Candidate Lula also sends a clear signal to future allies. He approaches the position of the new Chilean left that moved away from Chavismo during Gabriel Boric’s presidential campaign. It opens the way for collaboration with Gustavo Petro in the resumption of diplomatic relations between Bogotá and Caracas. In terms of relations with the United States, the former president is once again positioning himself as a useful interlocutor in Latin America, at a time when the Biden administration seeks to restore its alliances with oil-producing countries.
Finally, Lula imposes a first test of authority. In an eventual government, its competence to take Brazil back to the great global debates will also be judged by its ability to solve the immediate problems in its region. The advancement of diplomacy in Venezuela will also legitimize the return of emblematic institutions of its government such as Unasur.
The debate on Venezuela could be postponed, but never ignored. The country is a power in Latin America, and Hugo Chávez, a difficult but unavoidable reference in the global history of the left in this century. His social tragedy haunts electoral debates in Spain, France and the United Kingdom and the United States. Every credible project of union in Latin America and its reintegration into the international system has to start with its most sensitive point: giving Venezuela a new direction.
