Under great skepticism from military observers, the Ukrainian government said it had launched its first counter-offensive this Monday (29) to try to retake areas in the south of the country occupied since March by Russia.
Details are still scarce. “We have started offensive actions in several directions, including in the Kherson region,” Southern Military Command spokeswoman Natalia Humeniuk told a news conference.
The public website Suspilne showed footage of what would have been the bombing in the Mikolaiv region, the point at which Russian forces stopped their advance towards Odessa, the country’s main port that is under partial blockade, with the exception of some ships carrying grain. .
Kiev has spent the past five weeks rehearsing the ground attack, following a successful series of US precision artillery bombardments of Russian logistical targets, such as ammunition depots far from the front lines. Bridges over the Dnieper River, which separates the eponymous capital from the rest of Kherson, were also hit.
This angered the Kremlin, which accused US involvement of direct in the conflict, which Washington denies for fear of a Third World War. The situation in the city of Kherson became more vulnerable, but even the Ukrainian military authorities said with reservation that they did not have the forces to take it.
This led to a stalemate, as President Volodymyr Zelensky and his allies increasingly pressed for results from their military. Their fear is obvious: the delay has caused the Russians to reinforce their positions in the south, despite the attacks, and winter is coming.
The season promises to be one of sharp crisis, as the dispute has reduced the amount of Russian gas to European countries, which impose sanctions on Moscow. As a result, homes could go unheated not just in Ukraine but across Europe, reducing government support for Kiev.
This has already been admitted by the German government, whose economy depended heavily on gas from Russia and on supply schemes devised over two decades between Berlin and the Vladimir Putin administration.
The problem for Zelensky is that time is on Putin’s side, who despite having his economy hit by the punishments, has politically outlived them and has greater reservations. A sign of the strategy of prolonging the conflict was the announcement that the Russian Armed Forces will have about 10% more soldiers from 2023.
Even the grand annual Russian military exercise, which takes place staggered each edition by 4 of the country’s 5 commands, has been scaled back. Vostok (East) starts on Thursday (1st) with about 50,000 men, compared to 300,000 in its previous edition, in 2018. The 2021 edition, which took place in the west with Belarus, had 200,000 soldiers.
Vostok thus draws more attention for the constant presence of allies, notably China, now in the context of a Cold War 2.0 made hot in Europe by Putin.
These restrictions reflect Russia’s difficulties so far, but also Putin’s position of strength. In the first stage of the war, the attack on several fronts six months ago, the Kremlin failed to take Kiev by surprise, but penetrated far into southern Ukraine.
In the second, which began in April, it focused its forces on Donbass, the east of the country whose autonomy in Russian-speaking areas was one of the central justifications for the invasion – which sought to establish Putin’s control over the entire country, with or without occupation, in a challenge to what is perceived as a threat from NATO, a western military alliance that expanded eastwards after the end of the Soviet Union in 1991.
The Russian there was more successful, rather slowly and bloody. He conquered Lugansk province and advanced on the remainder of Donetsk that he did not yet control, but in such intense friction that the last major territorial gain took place in June. But it consolidated a land corridor between the Donbass and Crimea, annexed without a fight in 2014, drawing a new map.
At the end of July, a new stage of the conflict took shape with renewed attacks from Moscow and the Ukrainian action with Western weapons, which foreshadowed a counteroffensive that he now says is underway. There were also occasional attacks in areas of Crimea, with a more psychological effect. There are doubts about Kiev’s ability, for example, to take and reoccupy Kherson, but the days will tell.
For Putin, the learning curve from tactical mistakes so far has proved ambiguous. Its political power remains unshakable, contrary to what western commentators predicted, and the option for a war of attrition in the style of the second world conflict only shocks those who do not know the Russian military mentality.
But the succession of problems and the Ukrainian resistance, fed with NATO weapons, have demoralized the propagated modernization of its Armed Forces. There is also international isolation and, now, the crisis at the Zaporijia nuclear power plant.
Occupied by the Russians, the region is the scene of fighting, with both sides accusing the other of dangerous bombings that could lead to a nuclear disaster. A commission from the International Atomic Energy Agency is expected to finally go there this week to assess the risks. An eventual ceasefire in the region could serve as the basis for a resumption of negotiations between Kiev and Moscow, although this is remote today.
