More than 40% of Americans believe that a new civil war in the United States is at least somewhat likely in the next ten years. When taking into account the political orientation of respondents, the belief is stronger among Republicans than among Democrats.
The data is from a survey carried out by YouGov and The Economist magazine, which asked the population about the changes in the country’s political atmosphere and how they see the future.
Asked about the likelihood of a civil war in the United States within the next ten years, participants could choose between “very likely”, “somewhat likely”, “not very likely” and “not likely”.
While 43% responded that a new civil war is very likely or somewhat unlikely in the next decade, 35% think that conflict is not very likely or not at all likely. Another 22% of respondents weren’t sure.
Among those who identify as staunch Republicans, the percentage who believe in the possibility of civil war rises to 54% – 20% of the total say the scenario is very likely. Another 30% of those who share the same political orientation consider the idea not very or not at all likely, and the remaining 16% are not sure.
Among staunch Democrats, 40% responded that the hypothesis is very or very unlikely, 39%, not very or not at all likely, and 21% are uncertain.
This belief in a possible civil war is linked to the way Americans view the political landscape in their country today, with most saying that polarization and political violence have surfaced and are only set to get worse.
Two-thirds of respondents (66%) say political divisions have widened since the start of 2021, compared with 8% who say the country has become less divided.
According to the survey, the outlook for the near future is not positive either. Of the total respondents, 63% say these divisions will increase in the coming years, while 7% think they will decrease.
Republican party supporters are more likely to see society as polarized. Among them, 79% think the political divide has widened since last year, and 72% predict it will widen in the near future. Among Democrats, those percentages are 59% and 58%, respectively.
Respondents’ responses were similar when asked about political violence. In all, 65% responded that political violence has increased since the beginning of last year, and only 8% believe it has decreased.
In addition, 62% believe that political violence will increase in the US over the next few years, compared to just 9% who think it will decrease.
The new poll comes on the heels of a new upsurge between Democrats and Republicans, caused by an unprecedented FBI operation against Donald Trump. The former president is accused of having appropriated confidential documents from the White House after the end of his term.
The operation turned social media around, agitated extremists and alarmed American institutions.
The most serious episode took place three days after the operation, when a man with an AR-15 rifle tried to break into an FBI building in Cincinnati (Ohio), exchanged fire with agents and was chased until he was killed. The attacker was a prolific Trump supporter on Truth Social, the social network created by the former president. But other platforms, like Telegram and TikTok, are also full of calls to arms.
