As soon as she left the post of High Commissioner of the United Nations for Human Rights, the former president of Chile Michelle Bachelet showed that she would enter the campaign for the approval of the new Constitution of the country in the referendum to be held next Sunday (4).
In a video posted on social media on Wednesday night (31), Bachelet “surprises” the house of a woman, who has a snack with her friends while they debate the new text. “Did you know that the current Constitution says nothing about women and that the current one [proposta] do you have 35 articles on this topic alone?”, asks the former president, adding: “This new Constitution will not solve everything on its own, but it is a starting point. We will have to make adjustments, so that from there we can move forward.”
The idea of ​​defending “approval, but with changes”, as Bachelet suggests, or “if there is disapproval, let’s go back to the beginning” is a commitment of the governing alliance and of most of the center and center-right parties if the rejection wins. in the vote. A non-partisan letter was endorsed by President Gabriel Boric.
The consensus is also voiced by political leaders from the government and the opposition, who highlight the overwhelming 80% of votes in favor of ending the current Charter in the 2020 referendum.
This kind of plan B is discussed because polls have shown an advantage in rejecting the text: the no has 46% of voting intentions, against 37% of the yes – but 17% of Chileans say they are undecided, according to Cadem. Consultation rules do not allow the release of new numbers until voting day, which adds to the suspense and backroom negotiations. Voting will be mandatory in the election.
“A defeat on Sunday will not be a defeat for democracy. On the contrary, it will be its strengthening, because it is democracy that will keep us committed to writing a new Charter”, says lawyer Luis Cordero, director of the NGO Espaço Público. “Once there’s an agreement that this process needs to go all the way, we’re on a positive path — even if it certainly means a defeat for Boric.”
For the constitutional lawyer Tomás Jordán, who presides over the New Constitution Observatory, an initiative of Chilean universities, both scenarios foresee long processes and depend a lot on the type of victory that the winning option will have.
“If Approval wins with a large advantage, implementation will be simpler: Congress will participate in the regulation of laws, but in specific things. If it wins by a little, there will be a need to negotiate more, because Parliament is more moderate than the Constituent — then it must increase the pressure, in a more forceful way, to make some points less radical.”
Even in the case of a firm victory for the yes, the new Constitution does not take effect immediately. Almost all legislation must be regulated by Congress. This will stretch the process, according to analysts interviewed by Sheet, to at least two more presidential terms. Until then, the current Charter, promulgated during the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet, will remain in force.
In the most likely case, in which the research numbers are maintained and the Reject wins, a more thorny path begins. The government and Congress will have two weeks to reach an agreement that will define whether there will be a new Constitutional Convention, what the wording will be, when a new vote will take place and whether it will go through a referendum like this one. A new election of lawmakers, however, could only take place at least 125 days after Sunday, according to Servel (electoral authority).
“From the right, there is pressure for more congressional participation in the drafting of the new Charter, less independent names and representatives of indigenous communities – although they agree with gender parity. base text, to gain time and have a new Charter before the 50th anniversary of the coup d’état [setembro de 1973]”, says Jordan.
