Head of EU diplomacy (European Union), Josep Borrell said on Monday (5) that the bloc needs to redefine its policy on military purchases because the Ukrainian War is “depleting to a large extent” the arsenals of member countries.
In another important move, which demonstrates the effects of the Russian invasion on defense markets, Iran has announced that it intends to buy 24 advanced Su-35 fighter jets from Moscow. The models had been built for Egypt, but the US threat to apply sanctions against the Arab country made him switch from the Russian plane to the American F-15.
As a result, the six months of war that altered European geopolitics and affected the whole world through their economic effects, as the cut of Russian gas to the continent demonstrates, are creating a new panorama in international relations.
“The military stockpiles of most Member States [da UE] they’re, I wouldn’t say exhausted, but depleted to a great extent, because we’re providing a lot of capacity for the Ukrainians,” Borrell said. “It has to be replenished, and the best way to do that is all together. It will be cheaper,” he said.
By July, the bloc had approved the shipment of €2.5 billion (R$12.8 billion, at today’s exchange rate) in arms and ammunition to the Ukrainians. The account does not include individual transfers from Member States, as in the French case. The UK, which is no longer part of the club, has also shipped several weapons systems.
But the biggest Ukrainian supplier is, of course, the biggest military-industrial power in the world, the US. Washington has already committed to sending $13.5 billion in weapons, including advanced anti-aircraft systems and long-range artillery.
Even there, there is discussion about the pace of deliveries: the stock of Javelin anti-tank missiles, vital in the first phase of the war, has been reduced to the minimum necessary in the US. 8,500 of these launchers were sent to Kiev.
The war caused European countries to open the vault for military spending, particularly those members of NATO (US-led military alliance). Americans have always complained about the continent’s lower commitment to defense, but now countries are racing to reach at least the club’s standard 2% of GDP spent on defense.
Borrell’s speech touches on a central point: those with money, like Germany, have already announced a broad rearmament program, tripling their military spending this year by opening a €100bn fund for the end. Those who do well, like what happened in Egypt, were the Americans, who will sell F-35 fighter jets to Berlin.
But countries that are more exposed and with fewer resources, such as the Baltic States, will need help and transfer from Brussels. Today, it is NATO fighter jets that patrol the skies over that region, as Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia do not have a capable Air Force.
But the position of the Spanish diplomat also indicates something else: another front of wear in Europe’s support for Kiev, already affected by the economic crisis, inflation and the prospect of a winter of difficulties.
Despite the bad news, in addition to its resilience to economic sanctions and the start of the gas war with Europe, Moscow has had some good news in military affairs. Until the conflict, Russia was the second largest arms seller in the world.
In addition to India, a traditional partner that may increase its orders, Iran, which is negotiating a new agreement to contain its nuclear program and seeks to see Western sanctions lifted, is emerging as an important partner in the Middle East.
This was already happening in the association with the Russians and the Syrian government in the Arab country’s civil war. In January of this year, Moscow and Tehran signed a military cooperation pact that provided for the purchase of $10 billion worth of Russian weapons. It is speculated that the package would include advanced Su-35, S-400 anti-aircraft systems and even a spy satellite.
With the Cairo deal collapsed, the Russians are left with 24 export-ready fighter jets with no customer, opening up the possibility of a transfer that essentially changes the level of the Iranian Air Force, which is very effective in terms of drones, but based its defense in old American F-14 fighter jets, purchased before the Islamic Revolution of 1979.
According to the commander of the local Air Force, Hamid Vahedi, told Borna news agency on Sunday (4), the acquisition of the Su-35 “is on the agenda” and “soon”.
On the other hand, Moscow has augmented its meager drone fleet with Iranian models, particularly for application as target designators for artillery in Ukraine. Reports say that the first squadron with Mohajer-6 models and some of the Shahed family have already been sent to the Russians.
