Brazil’s presidential campaign is in full swing after its official start on August 16, pitting left-wing former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) against the right-wing current president, Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
Lula is the clear favorite to win. As the first round of voting approaches, on October 2, the former president leads the voting intentions by around 9 points.
Neither Lula nor Bolsonaro appear to have enough votes to win in the first round, so both candidates will face each other again on October 30. An average of all polls currently shows Lula leading the race with a 12-point lead over the president.
‘It’s the economy, stupid’
In 2018, Bolsonaro was elected with an anti-establishment platform and against organized crime and corruption, following the demands of voters at the time. But this year the main issue is, by far, the economy.
After years of weak growth, the combination of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Ukrainian War and rising interest rates in the US has hit Brazil — and Latin America — hard, leading to soaring inflation, rising unemployment, a drop in real income and an increase in poverty.
Most Brazilians are unhappy with the deterioration of their living standards and fear that the worst is yet to come. As is often the case, they blame the president for their misfortunes.
On the other hand, voters evaluate Lula positively on the economy, as they remember the big socio-economic gains that Brazil made during his first two terms – when Brazilian commodity prices were at historic highs – and have high hopes that he can “make Brazil great again” [fazer o Brasil grande de novo, trocadilho com o slogan da campanha do ex-presidente dos EUA Donald Trump].
It also helps the former president that corruption is no longer at the top of voters’ minds – Lula is involved in scandals. All Lula has to do is keep the message.
Bolsonaro remains in the race
But don’t count on Bolsonaro’s defeat yet. Brazil’s economy has outperformed expectations over the past two months, with unemployment recently dropping below 10%, growth estimates being revised upwards and inflation slowing.
Part of this is due to the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions and declining global food and energy prices, but the president has also contributed by increasing social benefits, reducing fuel taxes and raising the minimum wage. [sem aumento real].
A stronger-than-expected recovery supported economic sentiment and helped Bolsonaro close the gap with Lula. The president’s approval ratings rose to 38% from 35% a month ago and 30% in January, in a sign that voters are feeling better.
And most analysts predict the economy will strengthen further in the coming weeks, meaning Bolsonaro’s candidacy is getting more competitive as the campaign enters the decisive phase.
The president will spend the rest of the campaign highlighting his administration’s economic achievements. While Bolsonaro cannot campaign directly with an anti-corruption message, he can use his anti-corruption credentials to tarnish Lula, the courts, the media and the electoral system as agents of the establishment — a charge that resonates deeply with the large share of Brazilians who are fed up with ” business ever”.
This is the strategy that elected him in 2018, and the same strategy that also helped elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico, Gabriel Boric in Chile and, more recently, Gustavo Petro in Colombia.
Too little, too late?
While the race gets tighter and some polls may show a tie or even Bolsonaro ahead, ultimately the president is unlikely to be able to turn the race around.
Economic issues remain voters’ top concerns; despite recent improvements, most Brazilians are still worse off than they were before the pandemic — and they are skeptical that Bolsonaro is capable and willing to change that.
The president needs to run a near-perfect campaign and pray that Lula stumbles if he wants to have a chance, but so far the interviews and televised debate have been tied. This is bad news for Bolsonaro, who needs to gain ground — and soon.
January 6th
Even if the election result is not so tight, however, a close race will give Bolsonaro more reason to claim that the vote was rigged. He laid the groundwork for this scenario by citing (unfounded) suspicions about Brazil’s electronic voting system and warning that the election will be stolen by the corrupt establishment. The president has also claimed for years that he actually won the first round in 2018 (he didn’t).
Therefore, if he loses — as he likely will — Bolsonaro will almost certainly contest the result and ask his supporters to take to the streets to annul the vote, just as Donald Trump did on January 6 in the US.
Demonstrations can turn violent. The odds of success, however, are equally close to zero. Brazil has no legal mechanisms to contest elections, and the courts and the military would uphold the rule of law. At the end of the story, whoever wins will be sworn in.
The greatest danger is that the threat to democracy is here to stay. Brazilian society is deeply disenchanted with the system, and a January 6-style event in Washington would only erode confidence further. Whatever happens in October, the forces that brought Bolsonaro to power will not disappear.
Will institutions hold out the next time a crisis knocks? I don’t have high expectations for this answer.
With a wealth of experience honed over 4+ years in journalism, I bring a seasoned voice to the world of news. Currently, I work as a freelance writer and editor, always seeking new opportunities to tell compelling stories in the field of world news.
