Opinion – Tatiana Prazeres: China should strengthen Xi Jinping’s power, but the party’s congress goes far beyond that

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Xi Jinping is expected to secure a new term as Chinese leader – that is the expected outcome of the 20th Congress of the Communist Party, which will take place in October. Given the result taken for granted, the importance of the country’s biggest political event has been underestimated.

Every five years, the CP elite meets to select the 25-member Politburo, the top of the power pyramid not just of the party but of the Chinese state. Out of those 25, a subgroup of seven will make up the Politburo Standing Committee — the top of the top of the pyramid. In the logic of the state party, one of these seven members will hold both the position of secretary-general and president of China.

Xi tends to be the first since Mao’s death in 1976 to serve more than two terms as leader. In 2018, a constitutional reform abolished the term limit, in a show of strength by the current leader.

For Xi to remain in power, another unwritten age-limit rule will need to be disregarded. “Seven up, eight down”, they say in Chinese. Green light for the 67 year olds, retirement for the 68 year olds at the party meeting. To see if the rule would be relaxed just for Xi, 69. Of the 25 members of the politburo, 11 will already have 68 in the October conclave.

Chinese domestic policy is admittedly opaque. Little is known about the intra-party decision-making process. Despite being hermetic, the party is not monolithic. There are conservatives and reformers; liberals and hardliners. There is the new Chinese left, the so-called neo-Maoists. It is known, for example, that the decision to accept entrepreneurs in the PC framework in 2001 was controversial.

In addition to the public trajectory of the candidates for the highest positions, analysts are picking up the crumbs. Loyalty ties, patronage and personal relationships — all this ends up weighing heavily in political speculation. Look, for example, at who accompanies Xi on trips around the country, who is assigned to thorny missions, who worked with whom, who comes from the same groups (eg the Communist Youth League).

Even for an opaque system, there is a great lack of knowledge about Chinese politics around the world. Who recognizes Li Keqiang, the Chinese prime minister? Who is the country’s vice president? Who are the rising stars? With Xi maintaining power, it’s as if nothing else matters.

Starting with the October meeting, there will be a major musical chairs dance in the Politburo, and the changes will signal trends for years to come. Two key figures for economic policy may leave the scene: both the prime minister, in March, and Liu He, dubbed the economy tsar. The choice of your replacements will point out possible directions in this critical area.

The main foreign policy name of the Politburo, Yang Jiechi, who has led the toughest talks with the US in recent years, must also change. Changes are also expected in the military command, at a time of rising tensions over Taiwan. The party’s main ideologue, former teacher Wang Huning, is expected to remain in the group.

The fact that the system is obscure and that Xi is super-powerful ends up serving as an excuse to stay on the surface, in the headlines of the third term. The world should not have the luxury of disregarding the signs of the most important political event in five years for a country like China.

It’s easy to treat the CP meeting as a bureaucratic show in the face of Xi’s likely reappointment. It’s easy, but it’s a mistake.

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