Russia Draws Red Line for US in Ukraine War

Russia said on Thursday that the United States would cross a red line and be considered part of the conflict in Ukraine if it provided long-range missiles to Kiev’s forces.

The threat was made by the spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, when talking about speculation that the Americans may supply ATACMS tactical missiles, with a range of up to 300 km, to the Ukrainians.

These weapons can be used by the 16 Himars launchers already delivered by the US to Kiev, which officially only use high-precision GMLRS ammunition — GPS-guided rockets that hit targets up to 80 km away.

“If Washington decides to supply Kiev with longer-range missiles, then it will be crossing a red line and being a direct part of the conflict. Russia has the right to defend its territory,” Zakharova said.

The tone is not new: Zakharova and her boss, Chancellor Sergei Lavrov, had previously accused the US of being directly involved in the conflict due to the massive influx of war material and intelligence data into Ukraine. But the current moment and the establishment of that red line give drama to the speech.

Russia is experiencing its most difficult moment in the war that started more than six months ago, with the recent advance of Ukraine, which retaken areas of the province of Kharkiv (northeast of the country). The counteroffensive took Moscow’s forces by surprise, but the situation seems more stabilized at the front now.

The use of the term red line is complex, as it exposes the accuser to ridicule if such a line is crossed – in which case Russia would have to declare war on the US, which would amount to a courtship with the nuclear apocalypse.

In the 2010s, the American Barack Obama went through this when he established red lines for the Syrian regime: if there were chemical attacks in the country’s civil war, the US would intervene. Such bombings have occurred repeatedly, and the president has done nothing decisive.

So far, the US has committed $15 billion in weapons to Kiev, nearly four times the country’s pre-war annual military budget. There was an increase: initially they were portable anti-tank missiles, useful to contain the initial Russian attack, but today they are rocket launchers, artillery and even anti-aircraft systems.

This week, Kiev presented a plan to become a real military power, aiming to contain the Russians: it wants to be armed for decades by the West and establish bilateral mutual assistance pacts, even without joining NATO (Western military alliance). Moscow saw the ambitious proposal as the “prologue to World War III”.

Of course, this gives the character of proxy war that Moscow accuses the West of doing, but there have always been limits: fighter planes were not sent, nor long-distance systems that could reach Russian territory.

Last month, a Black Sea Fleet air base in Crimea was hit by explosions, which wiped out perhaps half of the 24 fighter jets and attack planes based there. Satellite images suggested a missile strike, although they were not seen and the region was heavily populated.

Suspicion fell on the ATACMS, which Kiev neither confirmed nor denied. With the retaking of almost the entire territory of Kharkiv, the Russians may fear attacks on their neighboring region of Belgorodo, something that has only occurred in the form of sending drones and saboteurs to prevent a local escalation.

Also on Thursday, the Krivii Rih city government said it had managed to contain the region’s rising river level after dams burst by a Russian-made cruise missile attack, as part of containment actions following the initial success of the Kiev troops in the northeast.