Al Monitor: Why Vladimir Putin is supporting Tayyip Erdogan

And just the possibility o Tayyip Erdogan losing the election, and not being able to stay in power, is worrying for him Vladimir Putin reports Al Monitor website.

There are several reasons for this. First and foremost, Turkey’s refusal to join Western sanctions against Russia over Ukraine has thrown the Kremlin a lifeline. Turkish skies remain open to Russian air carriers while Turkish doors are open to hundreds of thousands of Russians and their money, despite warnings from senior US officials that they act as a potential conduit to avoid sanctions.

Turkish exports to Russia are increasing. The Financial Times reported that in July alone, the value of Turkish exports to Russia increased by 75% year-on-year.

On the diplomatic stage, Erdogan has used the conflict to bolster his credentials as the only NATO-member leader who can talk to Putin, sell Ukraine killer drones and deliver tangible results.

However, as much as Erdogan presents himself as a friend of Ukraine and Russia, “his ‘half-hearted’ attempt to balance between Ukraine and Russia in the war is relatively more favorable to Russia,” said Chris Miller, a professor at Fletcher School for Diplomacy and director of the Institute for Foreign Policy Research’s Eurasia program specializing in Russian affairs.

Although Erdogan helped broker a deal that allows Ukrainian grain to reach world markets, the deal also brought concessions for Russia that allow it to export its own grain and fertilizer, with much of the grain purchased from Russia itself. Turkey. “If the Russians had negotiated on their own, they might not have secured as good an outcome,” commented Aydin Sezer, a former Turkish finance ministry official who served in Moscow and closely follows the Kremlin’s ties to Ankara. At the same time, Ankara “turns a blind eye” when Russia transports stolen grain from Ukraine, prompting strong protests from Kiev.

“Whichever way you look at it, it’s clear that Putin wants Erdogan to stay,” Sezer told Al Monitor.

In recent weeks, Erdogan’s pro-Russian stance has become more pronounced, at least in words. At a joint press conference with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Belgrade, Erdogan said: “I can say clearly that I do not find the West’s attitude correct.” Its policies towards Russia were “based on provocation”. “Don’t underestimate Russia,” he warned.

Erdogan also said that Russia is justified in “blocking” gas supplies to Europe in retaliation for sanctions. “Europe is indeed reaping what it has sown” said the Turkish president.

The conflict in Ukraine has raised Erdogan’s value to Putin to a new level.

“It can seek normal relations with Turkey at a time when you cannot seek normal relations with any other country that is part of the West or the Euro-Atlantic system. On that basis, there is much more familiarity and comfort with the current Turkish elite, and the Russians would rather not risk someone else coming to power,” Miller said.

As for the personal relationship between Putin and Erdogan, Sezer argues that it is crucial.

An early “bond” was formed when the pair promoted a long-standing project, the construction of Blue Stream, the first pipeline to carry Russian natural gas to Turkey via the Black Sea. “Putin saw a determined man who could cut through the red tape, who he could work with,” Césaire said.

Russian oligarchs with close ties to Putin have since aggressively entered the Turkish market.

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