Once the election campaign in Italy began, Giorgia Meloni, leader of the far-right Brothers of Italy party, was quick to say, especially to international audiences, that an eventual government by him would not pose a threat to democracy or European stability. Two months later, the tone rose.
With the intensification of the rallies, the Italian began to raise issues at the center of her political repertoire — a party with roots in post-fascism. Naval blockade against immigration through the Mediterranean, encouragement of birth rates, so that Italy does not “disappear”, and national interests ahead of those of the European Union.
“In Europe, they are a little worried about Meloni. And what will happen? The mamata will end”, she said, in an election act accompanied by Sheet in Duomo square in Milan this month.
This Sunday (25), the Italians choose the composition of the two Houses of Parliament, which will define the formation of the next government. There are 400 seats in the House and 200 in the Senate, 345 fewer in total than in the 2018 election – the cut was approved two years ago. In the mixed system, majority and proportional, one third of the seats is occupied by the most voted, and the rest, by proportional distribution.
In the latest polls, published 15 days ago, as required by law, Meloni’s party had 24.4% of voting intentions. With Matteo Salvini’s Liga and Silvio Berlusconi’s Força, Italia, the party is part of a right-wing coalition that totals 45.9%, 17 points ahead of the center-left ticket led by the Democratic Party (PD). In third is the populist Five Star Movement (M5S), with 13.2%.
On the verge of voting, analysts are betting on a victory for the coalition led by Meloni. The advantage, however, may be narrower, due to an upward trajectory that ex-premier Giuseppe Conte’s M5S had been showing, with a campaign focused on the poorer south of the country and on basic income programs.
Predicting the outcome is as difficult as figuring out which Meloni will rule if named prime minister. Her coalition says that the one with the most votes will make the nomination, to be approved by President Sergio Mattarella. Will it be the moderate of the messages to foreigners or the radical of the speech for coreligionists?
“No one really knows how far she wants to go,” says Gianfranco Pasquino, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Bologna. “Saying that it will end the EU’s bigot is bad, because if that means recovering pieces of sovereignty, it is something costly, which it may not be able to carry out.”
International eyes are on Italy not only because of what Meloni has been saying at rallies. His party, like Salvini’s, is a historic ally of Hungary’s prime minister, the far-right Viktor Orbán.
While the European Commission tries to tighten the siege against Budapest’s “illiberal democracy”, with the suspension of the transfer of resources, the European Parliament has just approved a report that classifies the country as “electoral autocracy” – among the votes against were those of Brothers from Italy and League.
The bloc’s concern is with the possibility of Italy, in a possible Meloni government, moving away from France and Germany, an axis intensified during Mario Draghi’s term, and approaching Hungary and Poland. Together, they would have the strength to unbalance decisions and escalate disputes.
On Thursday (22), the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that if the scenario moves in a “difficult direction”, the EU has tools. The comment, outside the standards of neutrality of the post, was welcomed as a sample of how the Rome-Brussels relationship can go sour. Italy is the biggest beneficiary of the pandemic recovery plan, with access to €200 billion, conditional on reforms.
For Pasquino, the risk of a “Hungrization” of Italy, with democratic erosion, is low, because the country has a more solid institutional structure — and because Meloni, for now, has less internal consensus than Orbán. “But one risk is confusion. Coalition rulers may not know what to do, creating more uncertainty in the political system, which is always bad for the economy.”
The campaign itself highlighted differences between alliance partners. Meloni, in his effort to prove himself credible, promises to uphold the Draghi line in foreign policy and, in the Ukrainian War, takes a stand against Russian action and in favor of sending arms to Kiev. A few weeks ago Salvini spoke out against sanctions on Moscow, and Berlusconi speaks either as a pro-European or as a former ally of Vladimir Putin.
A deputy since 2006 and a candidate for a fifth term, Meloni, 45, arrives as the favorite after her party won 4.3% of the vote four years ago. Her growth is credited to the fact that she has always remained in opposition; Salvini participated in the first Conte government and Draghi’s base of support, like Berlusconi.
Since she founded the Irmãos da Itália in 2012, she has known how to assemble a mobilized party machine and maintain consistency in her speech, criticizing, from the outside, restriction measures adopted in the pandemic. In her program, she adopts the line “God, country and family”, attracting the conservative vote disillusioned with Salvini.
Meloni is considered far from the feminist movement’s agenda. Her platform prioritizes monthly support for families with young children, tax reductions on diapers and more places in daycare centers. The woman, then, is supported only in the role of mother, analysts point out.
In the hastily launched campaign after Draghi’s unexpected fall, she has benefited from the center-left split. Flanked by small forces, the PD bet on a campaign of polarization, less purposeful. Its slogan, on posters around the country, simply said “you choose”.
If he wins, Meloni will lead Italy’s first far-right government since the end of World War II — a hundred years ago, Benito Mussolini came to power. He will lead a founding country of the EU, the bloc’s third-largest economy and a member of the G7, but against a backdrop of war, energy crisis and inflation.
The formation of the Executive and its confirmation in office, which can take weeks or months after the results of the polls – in 2018, it took almost 90 days –, can overlap with the procedures of the Budget Law and the deadlines of the recovery plan. “It will be a very difficult road for anyone to govern, with problems that will require collaboration with the Europeans”, evaluates Pasquino.
The slogan of Meloni’s poster, accompanying her photo with a confident smile, is: “We are ready.”
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