Opinion – Latinoamérica21: Electoral accountability and the quality of democracy in Brazil

With 156 million voters, Brazil is the fourth largest democracy in the world in terms of number of citizen voters, behind only India, the United States and Indonesia.

Therefore, the general elections that will be held on October 2nd and 30th, if a second round is necessary, stand as a political event of greater relevance in national, hemispheric and global terms.

From the perspective of electoral accountability –also called vertical-, Brazilian citizen voters were summoned to the polls to choose executive and legislative authorities.

The responsibility for organizing this democratic event on a global scale rests with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE).

With 90 years of existence, the TSE is the institution in charge of all phases of the country’s electoral process, including voter registration (census), strict compliance with laws, registration of candidacies, organization of polling stations, specialized justice and the proclamation of results.

It should be noted that the TSE enjoys enormous prestige within the country and considerable recognition internationally, especially since Brazilian redemocratization in the 1980s and 1990s.

In other words, the organization, integrity and justice observed in Brazilian elections, especially since the transition and democratic consolidation, were correctly valued.

This is an even more significant finding given the corroboration, during the period, of both conventional political participation and the persistence of marked political competition, that is, the legitimate struggle between parties for power.

At the same time, although it is necessary to identify insufficiencies and contradictions in other dimensions of the quality of Brazilian democracy –especially those of a procedural nature, content and even results– with regard to the institutional performance of the main electoral organization in the country, it is only possible to highlight the unquestionable technical and impartial work of the TSE.

Consequently, the high qualification achieved by Brazil is fully justified, specifically with regard to electoral accountability, understood as one of the procedural dimensions available for the study of the quality of democracy.

However, and perhaps unexpectedly, this year’s general elections, instead of continuing to be a reason for satisfaction, civics and republicanism, run the risk of becoming a dramatic, polarizing, sectarian and violent event, mainly in the competition for the Palácio do Planalto, or namely, the Presidency of the Republic.

It turns out that, alleging possible security flaws in electronic voting machines – a magnificent example of electoral technology used since the 1990s –, Jair Bolsonaro, who is seeking reelection, threatened to disregard the outcome of the process.

Emulating narratives used by former President Donald Trump in the 2020 American elections, which resulted in the attempted invasion of Parliament on January 6, 2021, Bolsonaro and his co-religionists did not hesitate to drive a campaign of disinformation, abuse of political and economic power, and threats to TSE authorities.

The matter is all the more worrying because some key sociopolitical actors, including the Armed Forces command, seem ready to embark on a reckless Brazilian “Six of January”.

This comes at a time when most polls of voting intentions since late 2020 suggest that the Brazilian opposition would have a reasonable chance of achieving victory at the polls, if elections continued to be free, fair and republican.

Undoubtedly, a Brazilian “Six of January” would represent a negative scenario from any point of view.

Among other things, it would be a clear symptom of democratic erosion and autocratization. It would also represent an unbridled attempt to block mechanisms of electoral – or vertical – accountability, disrespect for popular sovereignty and the emergence of an anti-republican, illegitimate and anti-democratic government in one of the reference countries in Latin America and the Global South.

It is not surprising that a scenario of eventual de-democratization in Brazil has generated enormous concern among the political class and society as a whole, including sociopolitical actors such as business, trade unionism, social movements, civil society and the academic world.

In addition, such symptoms of democratic erosion and the questioning of electoral accountability also had repercussions on the international scene, especially in other Latin American countries, with ties and interests in Brazil.

A Brazilian “Six of January” would result in a virtual self-coup, in a spurious “continuism” and in some form of competitive authoritarianism, that is, in a change of political regime and the imposition of an illiberal or hybrid government.

That said, there is no choice but to continue to closely monitor the course of the campaign, the promulgation of results, the post-election period and the inauguration of elected constitutional officials.

In all these stages, the Brazilian electoral body, led by Minister Alexandre de Moraes, will play a leading role. Thus, and only in this way, will it be viable for democracy to remain the “only game available” in the South American giant.

_{Translation of Giulia Gaspar}