Russia raises threat, says it may use nuclear weapons against Ukraine

Russia has raised the level of nuclear threat even higher in the Ukrainian War, stating for the first time in full letter that it can attack the neighboring country with the atomic bomb, “if forced”.

The words, as always, came from a hardline ally of Vladimir Putin’s president, Dmitri Medvedev, a former president (2008-12) and protégé of the boss who is now his number 2 on the Russian Security Council.

On his Telegram channel, he was explicit about the use of nuclear devices against Ukraine, something previously only suggested by him and Putin himself, not against the neighbor, but against external forces that intervened more decisively in the war started by Moscow in February. .

“Let’s imagine that Russia is forced to use the most terrifying weapon against the Ukrainian regime, which has committed large-scale acts of aggression that are dangerous to the very existence of our state,” he said.

“I believe that NATO [aliança militar ocidental] will not interfere directly in the conflict even in this scenario. Demagogues across the ocean and in Europe will not die in a nuclear apocalypse.”

The scenario described by Medvedev is exposed after the United States made its own threats in response to Putin’s speech last week, when he announced the mobilization of 300,000 reservists while promoting the annexation of occupied territory in Ukraine. The move aimed to contain the crisis in the Russian campaign, after the loss of areas in the northeast of the neighbor to Kiev.

The president suggested that an attack on the new lands he considers his own will be considered an action against Russian sovereignty, which within the country’s nuclear doctrine entails defense with nuclear weapons, even if it is a victim of conventional weaponry. Putin had been making atomic threats since the beginning of the war.

What Medvedev did this Tuesday (27) was to name the horse, repeating that “certainly this is not a bluff”, as Putin had already said. On Sunday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he had made it clear to the Kremlin that the use of the bomb would have “horrific” consequences — that is, nuclear retaliation.

On Monday (26), the Russian Defense Ministry played its part in the show and released an exercise with part of the Tu-160 strategic bomber fleet, which can employ nuclear weapons, with aerial refueling and readiness tests.

Obviously, both Medvedev and Putin bluff a little when talking about apocalypse, since at the origin of the concept of a nuclear attack is the idea that you don’t announce it, precisely to have a window of time and avoid a lethal counterattack.

But his speeches open up the worrying possibility of preparing the ground for the use of tactical nuclear weapons, those with less destructive power and the ability to contaminate the environment, to win battles against military targets. Apocalyptic speculations are for strategic bombs, those that obliterate entire cities, aiming to end wars.

The problem pointed out by experts is the boundary between the use of one weapon and another, something that is not in Russian or American military doctrine. An unpredictable climb is the first option on the table.

Even the use of tactical bombs is controversial, as it depends heavily on the terrain to be effective without requiring too many detonations — thus amplifying the risk of an environmental disaster. Tactical bombs have variable destructive capabilities, usually around 5 kilotons, one-third the power of the warhead dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.

But there are models with a tenth of that, accommodated in suitcases. Thinking of a conflict centered in Europe in the Cold War, the Soviet Union accumulated an arsenal that experts believe is up to 2,000 tactical bombs, compared to 200 Americans. It’s just that this isn’t controlled by agreements, so no one knows exactly.

Strategic weapons are regulated, with about 1,600 for each signatory side of the New Start treaty, ironically signed by the Russians by Medvedev in 2009. The US and Russia control 90% of the world’s nuclear arsenal.