This Sunday (16), the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party begins in Beijing. The event is the moment when the legend elects the command structure and defines guidelines that will guide the next five-year period.
This year, the greatest expectation concerns the re-election of Xi Jinping, the party’s general secretary – and, by convention, also president of the Republic and commander of the Armed Forces -, for a third term.
Foreshadowed in 2018, when the country abolished the two-year five-year limit on leaders, it is taken for granted by experts. Re-election would make Xi the longest-lasting since Mao Tse-tung (1893-1976).
Although it involves a series of elections, the conclave represents less a moment of decision-making and more of publicizing them, as choices were previously agreed among party members until the last plenary of the Central Committee, held a week earlier.
Find out how the congress works and what is its importance for the future of China. The information comes from researchers Evandro Menezes de Carvalho, coordinator of the Center for China-Brazil Studies at FGV Direito Rio, and Maurício Santoro, political scientist and professor of international relations at the State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ).
Where and when does the event take place? Congresses take place every five years and last around a week. Delegates meet in the Great Hall of the People on Tiananmen Square in Beijing, behind closed doors most of the time. This year’s event will still have strict health protocols, a consequence of the Covid zero policy in force in the country.
Who will be present? Participants are chosen, at regional congresses, among the 96.7 million party members. This year’s official list, released by the PC, has 2,296 delegates, who go through a background check process to have their presence confirmed.
How do voting take place? First, the participants elect the members of the Party’s Central Committee, made up of about 200 members and 170 alternates. The latter, in turn, chooses the 25 members of the Politburo. It is from this group that the names of the Standing Committee, the highest body of the Chinese CP and the regime as a whole, come from. It now has seven members, but this number is not fixed.
The Central Committee is still responsible for electing the secretary-general — who, according to a convention from the early 1990s, is also the president of the Republic and the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces. This rule is not, however, automatic, and different people have already held the positions of secretary general and superior of the military.
As in all socialist systems, the party prevails over the state: Xi owes his power to the post of secretary-general, not to his election as president. If he remains in the post, his new term would be confirmed in March at the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress of China.
How does the congress work? The event begins with the departure of dozens of party leaders to the Great Hall of the People to applause. They then take their places before a wall decorated with a gigantic hammer and sickle symbol and huge red flags.
At the opening ceremony, the secretary-general presents a report in which he takes stock of the goals set at the previous congress in 2017 – when Xi, in a speech lasting more than three hours, promised a new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics and greater Beijing’s connection to the world—and presents guidelines for the next five-year period. The speech is usually televised with a certain “delay” (delay in the broadcast signal).
In the following days, participants meet in groups to discuss the report and other matters and draft addenda to the party’s letter. These changes are reflected in the final versions of the documents, put to a vote at the closing ceremony in Congress. The Central Committee is also elected on the occasion.
A continuous act, probably on October 23 or 24, the first plenary meeting of the new Central Committee will take place. It is on this occasion that the Politburo Standing Committee is officially presented to the population as the new face of political power.
How important is the event? The Chinese CP is opaque and rarely discloses data about its guidelines or structure — there is, for example, no public list of all affiliates. The conclave is, therefore, one of the few moments in which he openly enunciates crucial information to predict the direction of Chinese policy.
One such piece of information is the composition of the Politburo Standing Committee. They are the ones who, together with the secretary-general, will lead China for the next five years, since the decisions taken at the party summit are by majority.
The other is the party’s own guidelines for the next five years. The government’s legitimacy is closely related to the execution of these plans, since, by making its priorities public, the population comes to expect that they will be fulfilled – even if, in a closed regime like the Chinese, they are not able to make objective measurements. .
What is the expectation for this edition of the congress? Analysts take Xi’s re-election for a third term for granted, which would allow him to further centralize power and reverse once and for all the trend towards collegiate regimes established in China after Mao’s death.
Xi’s permanence means, to a certain extent, the continuity of his policy, but the game of chairs around the secretary-general could change that scenario. A significant number of current Politburo members have reached the retirement age of 68, and they are expected to retire. This is the case with Prime Minister Li Keqiang, China’s second-highest official responsible for the economy, who has been acting as a kind of counterweight to Xi’s more centralizing measures.
What else is at stake? There is some expectation of the announcement of guidelines regarding one of the biggest problems in China today: the Covid zero policy. The measure is criticized by bodies such as the WHO (World Health Organization) and, with high political and economic costs — it forced the closure of factories and companies —, also due to some internal dispute.
Another concern is the housing crisis. The sector is responsible for almost a third of GDP, and its slowdown could exacerbate worsening growth rates. From a foreign relations point of view, one can expect a continuation of Xi’s aggressive diplomacy, with an emphasis on the Taiwan issue. Chinese authorities consider the island a rebellious province to be reclaimed.
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