A few months ago, Nigeria’s presidential race in the February 2023 elections was portrayed as a direct confrontation between two wealthy septuagenarians who have been on the country’s political scene for more than three decades.
But former governor Peter Obi, 61, has shaken up the dispute over the succession to Muhammadu Buhari. With promises of frugality and accountability, Obi is attracting support from a so-called “obedient” youth movement fed up with Nigeria’s spendthrift elite.
Given the entrenched strength of traditional parties and their plentiful resources, a victory for the candidate from a small acronym would come as a huge surprise. But Obi has cheered sections of a disillusioned electorate, so much so that he leads three recent opinion polls — with an eight-point lead in a poll by the influential local institute NOI.
“People like your frugal attitude and your message about cutting the cost of governance,” says Idayat Hassan, director of the Center for Democracy and Development (CDD) think tank. “Also, young people are using Obi as a channel to express frustration with the political system. He’s not running just for himself: if you check opinions online, you’ll see it’s on behalf of youth.”
Two parties dominate the Nigerian political landscape, and Obi is the first “third way” candidate seen as credible since the country’s return to democracy in 1999.
His opponents are Bola Tinubu, former governor of Lagos and candidate for the ruling Congress of Progressives (APC), and Atiku Abukabar, from the main opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party, former vice president and eternal candidate. presidential.
Obi was a candidate for vice in 2019 by the PDP. His campaign for the little-known Labor Party has been gaining traction in part because of popular frustration with these two well-known — and elderly — faces. Tinubu and Atiku, respectively aged 70 and 75, hope to lead a country where the average age of the population is 18. Representatives from Tinubu spent much of the initial phase of the campaign dodging questions about the candidate’s health.
“Voting for Obi does not mean that the situation in Nigeria will improve immediately. He is not able to solve everything, but with him at least there is some progress,” says driver Susan Abies in Benin.
The support of Obi from the young urban electorate is also a reaction to Buhari’s second term, accompanied by a 33% unemployment rate, national protests against police brutality and a ban on Twitter, a move that restricted the freedom of expression of the adept generation. of social networks.
“Young people realized that they were not at the top of the political old guard’s list of priorities and started looking for a new figure to represent them. They bet on Peter Obi because they consider him the most credible candidate”, says Adewunmi Emoruwa, strategist. head of the Gatefield consultancy.
The support has its roots in the #ENDSARS protests of October 2020, when young Nigerians took to the streets in large numbers to denounce a police unit notorious for committing extortion, brutality and extrajudicial killings. Obi expressed his support for the movement on Twitter and used it to launch a call for better governance in the country. The police unit was disbanded, and the movement ended up being stifled by the repression of the Nigerian Armed Forces.
Hassan points out that the choice of candidates flouted an “informal” zoning agreement in place in the country in a way that could benefit Peter Obi, a devout Catholic. Power in Nigeria normally alternates between North and South and between Muslims and Christians, but the PDP chose Atiku, a Muslim from the North, as a candidate to succeed Buhari, another Muslim northerner. The APC ticket has Tinubu, a Muslim from the south, and Kashim Shettima, a Muslim from the north, as his deputy.
Religious groups criticize what they see as the marginalization of the Christian population. “Obi may also end up being the church’s candidate.”
Despite all the enthusiasm surrounding the candidacy, the third way to Aso Villa, the Nigerian presidential residence, is fraught with obstacles. Since 1999, no candidate from outside the two main parties has won more than 7.5% of the vote. To win, you need 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of the country’s 36 states, plus the capital, Abuja.
Candidates from traditional parties have the advantage of a national apparatus with the support of governors and parliamentarians, something that Obi’s party lacks – which has no governor and only one senator.
Obi has already said that none of this discourages him. “The 100 million Nigerians who live in poverty and the 35 million who don’t know where their next meal will come from will be the party structure.”
He said the devastating floods that destroyed farmland in many states have intensified economic problems and will have consequences for food production. A wealthy businessman with interests in sectors ranging from banking to a brewery, Obi promises to encourage local production and end fuel subsidies, but his critics say he has yet to come up with a clear plan to tackle problems such as insecurity and sabotage. oil industry, the low income of the population and inflation of more than 20%.
Last year’s investigation of the Pandora Papers, leaked files on money held in tax havens, revealed that Obi owns companies registered in tax havens and that he had not declared them in the Nigerian politicians’ asset register. Obi said he did not know that he needed to declare assets he owned jointly with his wife and children, claiming that he had not broken any laws.
Critics think the candidacy could ultimately split the opposition vote and give the ruling party victory. Obinna Kanu, 25, will vote for the first time and shares the concern: “The best case scenario would be for Obi to win, but my personal goal is to change the situation in Nigeria.”
“The figures in power today need to be aware that the youth vote can strengthen a relevant third party. Even if Obi doesn’t win, but gets 10% to 15% of the votes, we will be able to show the old generation that sucked everything out of this country that this is just the beginning and that bipartisanship is coming to an end.”
With a wealth of experience honed over 4+ years in journalism, I bring a seasoned voice to the world of news. Currently, I work as a freelance writer and editor, always seeking new opportunities to tell compelling stories in the field of world news.
