Xi can shape profound change in Communist Party with election of allies

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Xi Jinping could consolidate a profound shift in the Communist Party and elect allies to nearly half of the Central Committee, the South China Morning Post reported citing sources involved in the talks. According to the paper, four of the seven seats on the Politburo Standing Committee are also expected to go to officials close to the Chinese leader.

• The Chinese CP Central Committee has around 400 members, considered the party’s political elite. It is, in theory, the most important decision-making body in the party hierarchy, responsible for regulating policies sent by the executive and choosing members of the Politburo (and its respective Standing Committee), bodies in charge of decision-making;

• The Committee’s symbolic meaning, however, is as important as its practical functions. By bringing together influential members, it ends up functioning as a showcase of Chinese leadership and indicates who has a chance to ascend to more relevant positions.

As national leader, Xi will occupy one of the seats on the Politburo Standing Committee. The South China Morning Post indicates that the party’s general secretary in Shanghai, Li Qiang (read more in the section “keep an eye”), Xi’s political adviser Ding Xuexiang and the general secretaries of Guangzhou and Chongqing provinces Li Xi and Chin Miner are favorites for the promotion.

In this scenario, the first secretary of the Party Secretariat, Wang Huning (considered the greatest ideologue of the acronym currently), and vice premier Wang Yang (if he is not in fact promoted to prime minister) would remain in the post.

why it matters: The design of a renewed Central Committee and Politburo Standing Committee with figures close to Xi guarantees almost unopposed governance for the Chinese leader, but creates impasses.

None of the names mentioned seem to have the profile of Xi’s political heir, which in theory would pave the way for another term in 2028, but would also put the country’s succession on hold. If he dies in office, Xi would leave an intense power struggle behind. If he chooses someone now, he risks being ignored in favor of his obvious successor. It will not be an easy choice, but at least his legacy seems preserved if the predictions are confirmed.

what also matters

Images of a protest promoted by Hong Kong citizens in front of the Chinese consulate in Manchester, UK, went viral on the internet after complaints of brutality by security guards at the facility. The case was registered on Sunday (16).

Protesters held up a placard showing Xi wearing a crown and shorts, satirically portrayed as an emperor. The video shows the moment security guards leave the consulate and try to pull one of the protesters through the railing, while officials try to tear the poster.

The protester told the BBC he was dragged into the consulate and beaten. The British government called the incident “extremely worrying” and said it was seeking “urgent clarification on the incident”.

Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin told reporters that he had submitted an explanation to the UK, describing the incident as “malicious harassment perpetrated by outlaws”. Manchester Police have opened an investigation into the case.

Newly appointed Executive Leader in Hong Kong, John Lee Ka-chiu (or Li Jiachāo in the Chinese version) took office on Wednesday (19) with a two-and-a-half-hour speech outlining his plans for the city.

Lee has promised tax and immigration law reforms in an attempt to attract young talent and skilled professionals. Graduates of one of the top 100 universities in the world will now be able to apply for a two-year work visa, as well as receive some residential tax refunds.

He also announced that Hong Kong will establish an HK$30 billion fund to co-invest in foreign companies interested in setting up branches in the city. Enterprises in the areas of artificial intelligence, data science, advanced manufacturing and health technology will benefit.

Hong Kong struggles to regain competitiveness and re-establish itself as the main Asian economic hub. The city regained two positions on the Global Competitiveness Index in 2022, but it trails Singapore in the ranking promoted annually by the World Economic Forum.

Keep an eye

Contrary to initial predictions, the general secretary of the Communist Party in Shanghai, Li Qiang, took the lead and is now the favorite for the post of prime minister of China, reports local media. Li is quite close to Xi Jinping, but had lost steam internally after the disastrous handling of the pandemic earlier this year.

The dispute, however, remains open with three other strong candidates for the position:

• Head of the Chinese CP’s propaganda department, Huang Kunming is another big name on Xi Jinping’s protégés list. He worked with the current Chinese leader when Xi was governor in Fujian province, moving with him to Zheziang when Xi was promoted to Party Committee secretary there;

• Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, Wang Yang is seen as the moderate in the middle. Loyal to Xi and close to current premier Li Keqiang, Wang is considered a more experienced official. Age (67) weighs against him, and the press speculates that he may be heading towards retirement;

• In keeping with tradition, Vice Premier Hu Chunhua would be the obvious choice. A protégé of former Chinese leader Hu Jintao and Li Keqiang himself, Hu is linked to the Communist Youth, one of the most powerful factions within the party. With Xi’s power consolidating, however, he is likely to end up out of the running.

why it matters: The seven new members of the Politburo Standing Committee — the heart of the Chinese political hierarchy — will only be known at the end of the congress, scheduled for Sunday (23). The new premier will be on the list and can represent the best thermometer of how the internal discussions within the Chinese CP were and what their priorities will be in the next five years.

If he confirms favoritism and takes the premiership, Li Qiang will indicate Xi’s internal power is much more ostensible than expected. In all of history, only Zhou Enlai (one of the founders of communist China) and Hua Guofeng (Mao Tse-tung’s heir) achieved promotion to prime minister without serving as vice premier beforehand. Breaking this rule would indicate how influential Xi has become.

to go deep

• Xi Jinping opened the National Party Congress with a speech lasting nearly an hour and a half. For those who couldn’t follow (or didn’t understand), I prepared a guide on the blog at Sheet explaining the main points raised by him. (porous paywall, in Portuguese)
• The Confucius Institute of Unesp and the Brazilian Association of Chinese Companies are promoting a recruitment fair for those who want to work for companies in the country. The event is in person and takes place in São Paulo on the 6th. Registration here.(free)
• The South China Morning Post published a report analyzing the consequences of the results of the Brazilian elections for relations with China. (porous paywall, in English)