Opinion – George Martine: Big question is no longer how to reduce population growth

In 2011, when the world reached the mark of 7 billion inhabitants, the Sheet invited two demographers to explain why they had an optimistic or pessimistic view of population growth at the time. Eleven years later, with the planet surpassing 8 billion inhabitants, José Eustáquio Diniz Alves and George Martine were called again to tell whether they maintain or revise their positions.

Despite a plethora of wars, pandemics, natural and unnatural disasters, the world population continues to grow and reaches 8 billion people. As always, this brand will raise heated debates about how to control the demographic increase due to environmental crises. Today, however, this is an unproductive discussion, for several reasons.

First, because the general contours of the future trajectory are already practically determined by the inertia of the demographic dynamics. UN projections show that, in the absence of nuclear wars or extermination policies, we will certainly pass 10 billion people before starting to recede and return to the current 8 billion at the end of this century.

In practice, what remains to be done in relation to the demographic increase is to improve the reproductive health conditions of women in the world, but this will only affect population growth in the medium and long term.

Second, because one stock (ie one person) in those billions is not comparable to all the others. Responsibility for environmental issues reflects this inequality. The richest populations grow little, but they weigh heavily in shaping any planetary catastrophe. Population strata with the highest population growth contribute less to the environmental crisis, but suffer more from its effects.

Third, because long before the trend of global population growth is naturally reversed, humanity will need to decisively face the structural problems that condition the environmental crisis. Science warns us that there are only a few decades left for the probable collapse of some planetary systems if there are not drastic changes in the social organization of our so-called “civilization”.

Fourth, because the issues that will arise in the demographic area over the next few decades are far more complex than growth. Indeed, global attention will inevitably turn to international migration. As dramatized in recent conflicts in Syria and Ukraine, global misgovernance favors an explosion in the number of refugees and depopulations.

The increase in heat caused by climate change will render important regions of Asia and Africa uninhabitable, generating the expulsion of hundreds of thousands of people; the largest diaspora in history is predicted, causing unparalleled humanitarian chaos. Finally, rich countries face aging and degrowth; like it or not, they will need migrants.

Historically, mass international migration has always been problematic. Ethnocentrism is a strong obstacle to the reception of immigrants — even when it comes to exchanges between Caucasian peoples.

The populations that will move, whether as refugees from war or climate, or to meet the demographic demand of older countries, tend to be of different color, religion and culture than those of destination. Some bizarre prophets like Elon Musk even speak of “demographic collapse”. This clearly reflects a tunnel vision in which the world boils down to “developed” and white countries.

The global context inspires little confidence in dealing with these tangled situations. The detours of globalization towards ultraliberalism and exacerbated nationalism have left serious consequences for governance, at all levels. The foundations of democracy are crumbling, as more and more countries blindly succumb to authoritarianism. Thus, there is a lack of climate and stimulus to identify, negotiate and implement essential measures at the global level.

The big question is no longer how to reduce population growth, but where the motivation and capacity to tackle this constellation of intricate geopolitical, environmental and humanitarian problems will come from.