In 2011, when the world reached the mark of 7 billion inhabitants, the Sheet invited two demographers to explain why they had an optimistic or pessimistic view of population growth at the time. Eleven years later, with the planet surpassing 8 billion inhabitants, José Eustáquio Diniz Alves and George Martine were called again to tell whether they maintain or revise their position.
The world population was just 4 million people in the year 10,000 BC and it took 12,000 years to reach 1 billion people, around 1800, with an average growth of 0.05% per year.
But after the Industrial and Energy Revolution, the population accelerated the pace of growth, reaching 3 billion inhabitants in 1960 and 4 billion in 1975, an annual variation of 2% in 15 years, the highest average growth rate in the history of homo sapiens. .
According to UN Population Division projections, on November 15, 2022, the global population will reach the 8 billion mark, doubling in size compared to 1974, but with a lower growth rate of 1,000,000. 4% per year for the last five decades and below 1% in 2022. Therefore, the acceleration phase of global demographic growth has passed and we are already in the deceleration phase. Projections indicate zero growth in 2086, with a peak of 10.4 billion people.
From 2087, an unprecedented phase of world population decline will be inaugurated.
Despite the high population volume achieved in modernity, the positive side is that there has been a qualitative advance in well-being. Globally, childhood mortality (ages 0-5) was 43% in 1800 and has dropped to less than 4% today. Life expectancy at birth was around 25 years and practically tripled, expected to reach 75 years in 2030.
More than 90% of the world’s population was below the extreme poverty line in 1800 and less than 10% today. There have been great advances in education, in housing conditions, in the social protection system, as well as enormous developments in science and technology.
But all the socio-economic advancement took place in an uneven and environmentally unsustainable way, as human progress came at the expense of ecological setback. The 2022 Credit Suisse Wealth Pyramid report shows that 13% of the world’s adults hold 86% of global wealth and 87% keep only 14% of the wealth stock.
Humanity has already surpassed the carrying capacity of the Earth, and the sixth mass extinction of species threatens the planet’s biodiversity, and may make the survival of human beings unfeasible.
In this general framework, demographic decline is a window of opportunity that can reconcile human and environmental rights. The Brazilian population — which grew about 50 times between 1800 and 2000 — will peak in the 2040s and is expected to lose 50 million people in the second half of the 21st century. China’s population will be reduced by more than 600 million people. between 2023 and 2100.
Fortunately, the general multiplication of people is out of date. Most countries in the world already have fertility rates below replacement level. Reproductive self-determination and the end of consumerism are the key to survival and harmony between culture and nature.
The future scenario for our planet can ideally be less unequal, with more trees and fewer people and with a better quality of human and environmental life.
With a wealth of experience honed over 4+ years in journalism, I bring a seasoned voice to the world of news. Currently, I work as a freelance writer and editor, always seeking new opportunities to tell compelling stories in the field of world news.
