The cost of war in Ukraine: Thousands dead, millions displaced and a global inflationary wave

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The war’s death toll so far has reached Europe’s highest level since World War II, while fueling a food crisis and an inflationary wave sweeping the global economy

THE Russian invasion on February 24 has caused him the death of tens of thousands of people, the displacement of millions moren, as well as economic consequences worldwide.

The following are the main effects of the war, as it now stands in the ninth month:

Deaths

The deaths that the war has caused so far have reached a level that has been recorded in Europe since World War II.

From February 24 to October 2, there are reports that 6,114 civilians were killed and 9,132 have been injured, although the actual numbers are much higher, as the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) reported on 3 October.

Ukraine has not said how many of its soldiers have been killed. The Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu stated on September 21 that 5,937 Russian soldiers had been killed since the start of the war.

Ukraine and Russia say the other side has suffered catastrophically heavy losses. Reuters was unable to cross-reference the two sides’ claims.

The Chief of Staff of the US Armed Forces estimated on November 9 that Russia and Ukraine they each had over 100,000 soldiers killed or wounded. “Very human pain,” General Mark Miley told the Economic Club of New York. Miley said the conflict has displaced between 15 and 30 million Ukrainians, and possibly 40,000 Ukrainian civilians have lost their lives.

Human pain

Since February 24, a third of Ukrainians have been forced to flee their homes, currently the world’s largest displacement crisis, according to the United Nations refugee agency. Ukraine has a population of over 41 million.

There are currently more than 7.8 million refugees from Ukraine registered across Europe, with the largest numbers in Poland, Russia and Germany, according to the agency.

Ukraine

In addition to the loss of human life, Ukraine has lost control of about 22% of its territory post the annexation of Crimea in 2014according to Reuters calculations.

It has lost part of its coastline, the economy is on its knees and some cities have been destroyed by Russian bombing. The Ukrainian economy will shrink by 45% in 2022, according to estimates by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

The actual dollar cost to Ukraine is unclear. It is not clear how much Ukraine has spent on the hostilities.

Russia

The war has come at a price for Russia too – although Moscow is not revealing it.

Apart from the military costs, the West has tried to punish Moscow by imposing sanctions – the biggest shock to the Russian economy since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Russia’s central bank last month upgraded its GDP forecast this year to a contraction of 3-3.5% from a previous contraction of 4-6%. At the end of April, he expected GDP to contract by 8-10%.

The Russian Ministry of Economy sees a 2.9% contraction this year and a 0.8% decline in 2023.

But the impact on the Russian economy is serious – and not yet entirely clear. It has been cut off from Western financial markets, most of its oligarchs have been sanctioned, and it is having trouble sourcing certain products such as microcircuits.

Prices

Western invasion and sanctions on Russia have led to large increases in the prices of fertilizers, wheat, metals and energyfueling the food crisis and the inflationary wave sweeping the world economy.

Russia is the world’s second largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia and the world’s largest exporter of natural gas, wheat, nitrogen fertilizers and palladium. Shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, international oil prices reached their highest levels since 2008.

Efforts to limit dependence on Russian oil, gas and petroleum products — or even put a ceiling on their prices — have exacerbated what is already the worst energy crisis since the oil embargo of the 1970s.

Western weapons

The US has provided over $18.2 billion in aid to Ukraine since February 24, including anti-aircraft systems, Javelin anti-tank systems, howitzers as well as chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear protective equipment.

The total military, economic and humanitarian aid that countries around the world have pledged to Ukraine by October 3 is about 52 billion euros, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Russia maintains that supplies of sophisticated weapons from the West to Ukraine find their way to the black market and then into the hands of extremist and criminal groups in the Middle East, central Africa and Asia.

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