In a planet that reaches 8 billion inhabitants, global demographic evolution and changes in the labor market point to a trend: older people having to retire later and later in a more unequal world in the comparison between countries.
In the coming decades, there will be a significant increase in the number of elderly people in rich and upper-middle-income countries. At the same time, the population growth rate in these nations will rapidly slow down.
This will imply a crucial change in the so-called dependency ratio. It indicates how many children and adolescents under 15 and adults over 60 will depend on people of working age (between 15 and 60 years approximately) to maintain, for example, economic activity and tax collection for social programs, education and public health and pensions.
The slowdown in the pace of global population growth, however, will not be homogeneous. African and Southeast Asian countries, now relatively poorer, will continue to increase their population in an increasingly sophisticated global labor market, which could lag behind them comparatively in terms of income.
The result of these two movements (higher dependency ratio in rich or upper-middle-income countries and an increase in the population in low- or lower-middle-income countries) is what tends to lead older people to work longer and to increase income inequality between poor and rich nations.
According to an expert, it will not be necessarily negative for older people to work more. This could naturally occur as longevity also grows, leading older people to want to stay active and produce to preserve their standard of living — which would contribute to the economy.
In low- and lower-middle-income countries, whose population will grow more than in high- and upper-middle income countries — expanding the concentration of global income —, the challenge will be to incorporate them into an increasingly educated and knowledge-based labor market. specific.
In the United States, the AARP, a private entity that studies issues related to people over 50, estimates that those who start spending their retirement funds at age 62, instead of waiting until 67, will end up reducing their benefits by 30% until the end of life.
If, on the one hand, money will become shorter for those who choose to retire earlier, life will become longer. It will be a matter of choosing between having less money in the future or working for a few more years.
The challenge is that, according to the AARP, three-quarters of seniors looking for work today say they encounter difficulties. In this context, age-related prejudice and stereotypes will need to be reviewed. For Bruno Ottoni, a researcher at the consultancy iDados and at FGV-Ibre, the fight against ageism should be encouraged by companies, which will need educated workforce, and by public policies, to retrain professionals following market demand.
“The fact that the future indicates that there will be more elderly people today who are less qualified for the new needs will put pressure on social spending and Social Security, with costs for governments”, he says. “The state will have to do something about it, via requalification.”
In low- and lower-middle-income economies, where population will continue to increase relative to wealthier ones, Ottoni cites the additional challenge of reshoring. It is a reverse movement to “offshoring”, in which companies employed cheaper labor outside their borders. Now, they internalize production in the face of gains from automation and increases in internal productivity.
For Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, professor at the Brazilian School of Economics and Finance at FGV, the retraining of older workers may gain space in public budgets when there is a decrease in the number of children and young people, reducing the need for resources for basic education. .
“But the changes in progress will demand new types of training for all ages, since many activities will be performed automatically. For example, the demand for after-sales professionals and monitoring the sale of goods and services online will grow”, says Barbosa. .
A study by the OECD (an entity that brings together 38 countries and in which Brazil does not participate) estimates that about 10% of jobs in the US — and 12% in the UK — could be eliminated in the coming years by processes involving artificial intelligence combined with automation.
There would, however, be very promising sectors for the younger people who are entering the market today. In more qualified areas, such as information technology, or in personal care and health, especially in nursing. For Marcos Hecksher, professor at the IBGE’s National School of Statistical Sciences, the Brazilian demand for this type of activity, which is difficult to automate, tends to benefit more women, who currently have a higher educational level than men.
One of the challenges for Brazil, according to Gabriel Ulyssea, an associate professor at University College London, is that the country has not even managed to tackle the issue of lack of technical education and professional training – fundamental for the job market of the future. According to the OECD, only 8% of young Brazilians complete this type of course, compared to 40% on average for the 38 countries in the group.
Ulyssea says that, in a few years, the labor market will also have to rely more and more on platforms that produce a “match” between available labor and demand for services — as labor relations tend to become increasingly informal.
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