Lula will face pressure to choose sides in international disputes, says analyst

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The experience of the first two terms of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the presidency and his speech during the campaign and after the victory in this year’s elections indicate that Brazil should start to insert itself more in global issues and get involved in organizations international events than what has been seen over the last four years under Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

“Lula is much more familiar with internationalist language, so we can expect a more engaged Brazil rhetorically and diplomatically,” explained professor of international relations at the University of West Florida Jacob Shively in an interview with Interesse Nacional.

Even with this trend in favor of a more active global role for Brazil, this “return of the country to the world”, as the president-elect said, will face challenges imposed by the global context marked by tensions between great powers, with a contrast between the West led by the United States and China and Russia, said Shively. “Brazil and its neighbors will likely face pressure to choose sides on key trade and diplomatic issues,” he said.

Shively is co-author of the recently published academic article Brazil’s Changing Foreign Policy Ambitions: Lula, Bolsonaro and Grand Strategy Analysis in the Global South, in which he compares Brazilian foreign policy under Lula and Bolsonaro. He argues that each government was limited or shaped by Brazil’s existing economic, diplomatic, and military status and investments, but each president’s domestic political calculations and ideological commitments unfolded markedly.

Despite these differences, he believes that Lula’s position so far on the War in Ukraine indicates that some elements of the current government’s foreign policy may continue to be alive in the next government, reflecting “a left-wing version of Bolsonaro’s nationalism”.

Read the full interview below.

As soon as he was declared the winner of the elections, Lula said that “Brazil is back in the world”. What do you think? What do you expect to change in Brazilian foreign policy and how do you think this will affect the country’s international role? Lula is partially correct. Based on his previous record, Lula is likely to insert Brazil into global issues and involve more international organizations than Bolsonaro. Lula is much more familiar with internationalist language, so we can expect a more rhetorically and diplomatically engaged Brazil.

In addition, with the weakening of the Covid-19 pandemic and the main scandals of previous administrations, Lula may have fewer domestic distractions to focus on abroad.

Even so, the change in foreign policy may prove to be more restricted with this Lula administration compared to 2003. Brazil’s economic situation and international commercial interests constrain any president. In addition, the strong Bolsonarist contingent in the National Congress leaves Lula with less room to drive major changes inside and outside the country.

Just as important, Lula himself appears to have moderated his ambitions for Brazil in the world. His campaign rhetoric this year suggests he wants to shift Brazil’s perspective from nationalist to internationalist, but 20 years ago he envisioned Brazil joining other rising states in sharing leadership globally and in South America.

Brazil saw its diplomatic profile grow in this period; however, Lula’s greatest ambitions, from Latin American leadership to a reform of the UN Security Council, have largely failed to produce real change.

Lula also said that the world misses Brazil on the global stage. Do you agree? There is room for the country to play an active role internationally? There is always room for Brazil to play an active global role. It is in a unique position thanks to its size, cultural influence, resources and position in various international organizations. As always, Brazil’s challenge is to balance its internal political, social and economic challenges with the projection of a clear and consistent agenda with the rest of the world.

In this context, Bolsonaro has framed the world largely in terms of friends and threats, with some states – notably China – as necessary and pragmatic business partners.

Lula’s foreign policy ambitions are moderate compared to his first two terms, but he brings a broader view of Brazil’s role on the world stage. In the coming months, we need to look at your cabinet’s nominations and initial political priorities.

Where he invests his “political capital,” as we say in political science, will reveal whether Lula will be playing an assertive role as he did in his first terms, or whether we can expect Brazil’s foreign policy rhetoric to change, but its basic diplomatic and economic priorities remain basically stable.

The world has changed a lot since Lula was president in his first two terms. There is a war going on in Europe and growing tensions between the US and China. How will this context affect the way Brazil can position itself globally? What do you think will be the biggest challenges for Lula’s Brazil on the international stage? On a global level, the biggest challenge in the coming years for Lula’s Brazil and many other governments will be the growing separation between what we might call the US-led economic and political order in contrast to Beijing and, to a lesser extent, Moscow.

Brazil and other Latin American governments saw Washington’s rhetorical warnings about economic integration with China, but this was supported by relatively little economic and diplomatic pressure. This is likely to change. Developments driving this move include supply chain shocks associated with the pandemic, growing cybersecurity threats and strategic expansion under Xi Jinping and the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Leaders in Washington and elsewhere are less optimistic that global integration will always have a positive outcome. I hesitate to call what we see a new Cold War. This is exaggerated. Still, Brazil and its neighbors are likely to face pressure to choose sides on key trade and diplomatic issues.

In addition, the pressure to act on climate change continues to grow. For Bolsonaro, the Amazon as an economic resource was an ongoing point of strong tension with certain foreign governments, notably France and Germany.

Given his current political record and rhetoric, Lula is likely to ease that tension. Still, we can expect the Amazon to be a major international concern alongside a host of other environmental challenges that all modern economies face. Lula and his government may feel international pressure to innovate or act beyond their current plans.

When Trump left the US government, there was a lot of discussion about how seriously the world would take Biden’s new foreign policy direction, as Trump managed to change the country’s international position (as in the case of the Paris Agreement). Will something like this happen to Lula and to Brazil? Will the world take Brazil’s “return” to traditional foreign policy seriously? This is a real challenge for any polarized democracy. In short, I think the world will take this foreign policy change seriously, but their willingness to follow through with diplomatic and economic commitments may be limited until they see clear direction emerge on the domestic political landscape.

On the one hand, my own research suggests that foreign policy change in the United States and Brazil is more restricted between administrations than we might imagine. Existing commitments, economic interests, ideological expectations, and so on, make practical and revolutionary change difficult.

Furthermore, governments tend to build reputations and histories, and their professional diplomatic corps tends to remain more stable than their political leadership. These facts can soften the trend of leadership change to create politics and reputation.

Despite this, leaders’ priorities matter for diplomatic insights and commitments. Just as observers need to ask themselves whether Biden’s foreign policy priorities might disappear after the next election, they will also be looking at Brazil’s policy for clues as to whether and to what extent Brazil’s foreign commitments will be credible and lasting.

What do you think will be left of the changes promoted by Bolsonaro in Brazilian foreign policy? We will likely see the more volatile aspects of Bolsonaro’s foreign policy approach reversed, but we will likely see some aspects of Bolsonaro’s geostrategic and economic nationalism remain.

More visibly, we will see Brazilian foreign policy rhetoric move away from Bolsonaro’s nationalist priorities. Bolsonaro highlighted the talk of “traditional values” and Judeo-Christian civilization, along with great skepticism towards global institutions. In practical terms, Bolsonaro emphasized relationships with other right-wing leaders and traveled less than Lula did when he was president. Much of this will be relatively easy for Lula to reverse or abandon.

Yet Brazil itself has a long history of regional domestic focus. Bolsonaro built on that tradition. Lula tried to oppose this preference in his first two terms, but in his last campaign, he seems to have followed some aspects of Bolsonaro’s leadership. The most revealing example may be his comments on the Ukrainian War.

By framing the two leaders as equally responsible, he largely followed a left-wing version of Bolsonaro’s nationalism. In this approach, leadership seeks to emphasize Brazil’s specific economic interests and avoid broader global entanglements, particularly entanglements that are perceived to be instigated in the Global North.

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