Russia said on Friday it had completed its military withdrawal from Kherson, the main city it had captured in its February 24 invasion of Ukraine.
Kiev forces slowly entered the city, fearing ambushes, but accounts available on social media show that the final moments of the Russian exit were dramatic, with soldiers lining up to cross the Dniper River to Moscow’s new positions in the region it annexed in September.
The withdrawal triggered a diplomatic offensive to end the conflict by President Volodymyr Zelensky’s allies who are funding his war, starting with the US, which has already given almost $20 billion in weapons to Kiev.
US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley told British newspaper The Times that the withdrawal opened “a window of opportunity” for leaders who will meet next week at the G20 summit in Bali to discuss peace.
Neither Zelensky nor Putin will be there, but their closest allies will: the American Joe Biden and the Chinese Xi Jinping will hold a bilateral meeting at the meeting. The Kremlin has denied that the Russian will make a video appearance, which the Ukrainian should do, and Moscow will be represented by Chancellor Sergei Lavrov.
There were other notable signs this Friday. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, said the US and Russia would sit at the table to discuss a prisoner exchange and that delegations from the two countries would meet in Cairo to work out a new version of the New Start, the main agreement. of strategic nuclear weapons control.
On the ground, the Russian withdrawal is Putin’s biggest symbolic defeat since he gave up on encircling and capturing Kiev due to insufficient force and Ukrainian reaction at the start of the conflict. The main presenter of Russian state TV, Vladimir Soloviev, lashed out at the country’s military leaders on his program on Wednesday night (10): “This scum lied from the top down. I don’t know why they weren’t shot,” he said.
Indeed, he did not criticize the retreat itself or the new invasion commander, Sergei Surovikin. This time, Putin managed to tie the most radical elements of his elite around the decision, announced drop by drop in recent weeks, with the withdrawal of the Russian administration and, later, the evacuation of civilians.
Thus, the withdrawal was praised by Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and the head of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigojin, main opponents of Defense Minister Sergei Choigu.
In practice, Russia appears to be establishing a new frontier for Kherson, based on the course of the Dnieper River. Despite losing the eponymous capital and largest city in the area, with almost 300,000 residents before the war, Moscow continues to dominate almost the entire territory.
Tactically, what remains to be seen is what will happen to the New Khakova hydroelectric plant, which is vital to the region. Kiev and Moscow accused each other of planning to blow it up, flooding the region. This would likely end the water supply channel to Crimea, annexed by the Russians in 2014, which lies to the south.
The canal had been interrupted by the Ukrainians, but was reopened as soon as Russia took Kherson in March.
Peskov said that despite the withdrawal, Moscow continued to regard territory west of the river as its own, prompting speculation whether the Kremlin would play its nuclear bluff and employ a low-powered tactical warhead against the Ukrainians — Russian atomic doctrine predicts the use of this type of weapon in case of existential threats to the sovereignty of the State.
In the other attached regions, the control varies. It is practically total in Lugansk, large in Zaporyzhia and about 60% in Donetsk. In the event of a peace negotiation, Kiev will hardly accept to lose some territory and Moscow, to hand over something it has in hand.
At Kherson, there were about 40,000 Russian soldiers. With the offensive mounted by Ukraine over three months, with attacks on bridges that served as a supply route for its troops in the city, the Russian position became indefensible. This led to the retreat, to avoid loss of forces.
A Ukrainian flag was placed on a building in the city’s central square in the middle of the night, but Kiev forces did not begin to enter the city until the morning. Unproven footage showed Ukrainian batteries firing at Russian soldiers crossing points on the river.
One video, this believable, showed the despair of a Russian soldier arriving across the Dnieper at dawn, saying his commanders had ordered troops to flee in the dead of night.
According to the Ukrainians, the Russians blew up the remaining bridges over the river, and fortified the entire east bank. Satellite images show pyramidal concrete structures known as dragon’s teeth to prevent the passage of armored vehicles, trenches and walls, as well as artillery positions.
If the war were to come to a ceasefire today, the area would look like demilitarized zones around the world, like the border between the two Koreas.
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