The world’s premier football event will contribute to an impressive geopolitical redesign of the Middle East, underway since 2020. For the first time, Qatar will receive around 30,000 visitors on flights from Israel and even a consular structure will be erected in Doha to help the Israelis.
The Cup takes place amid the unfolding of the Abraham Accords, signed between Israel and its former enemies the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. The treaties changed the Middle East dynamics and boosted cooperation in areas such as trade, investment, space activities, medicine, renewable energy and agriculture.
At the head of the diplomatic caravan are the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, the first signatories of a process undoubtedly endorsed by Saudi Arabia, the largest and most influential among the conservative monarchies of the Persian Gulf. There is an expectation that the Saudis will, in the not-too-distant future, forge an understanding with Israel, but rather test reactions in the Muslim world based on the Emirati and Bahraini experiences.
Two factors lead to the abandonment of the strategy of rejecting Israel. The first, of a geopolitical nature, concerns the threat posed by the Iranian regime, committed since the 1979 Revolution to expand regional influence, in a trajectory of clash with North Americans, Israelis and Saudis, rivals of Tehran on the Middle-Eastern stage.
Iran’s ambitions, illustrated also by the nuclear program, lead to a rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, although contacts remain under the cloak of discretion and without formal diplomatic ties. The Emirates and Bahrain were the pioneers in the historic opening.
Another factor cementing the realignment corresponds to the post-petroleum era. Persian Gulf monarchies, faced with the global search for renewable and non-polluting energy sources, decided to diversify their economic models to dilute dependence on the oil industry.
The option to develop the service sector came into play, with an emphasis on tourism, finance and technology. Based on this logic, Arab leaders in the Persian Gulf began to see Israel as a relevant partner to contribute to the dynamism of economies that were previously dependent on oil.
Cautious oil exporter, Qatar also embarked on the diversification of its economic model, and the World Cup stands out as another example of tourism promotion in the emirate. In a logic pushed by FIFA demands and regional geopolitical changes, Doha accepted the landing of direct flights from a country with which it has no diplomatic ties.
Qatar, despite historical ties with neighboring monarchies on the Persian Gulf, rejects for the time being the Abraham Accords, a reflection of its independent foreign policy. Fearful of attacks or invasions, the country builds a diplomacy capable of housing a US military base and nurturing ties with Iran. And to give a positive nod to Israelis, as in the World Cup, while funding Hamas, the group defending the destruction of Israel.
Logic of the Qatari government: diversifying diplomatic contacts avoids cultivating enemies and corresponds to reducing the risk of attacks or invasions of a country with small territory and great wealth. Hosting a World Cup also provides global visibility to a monarchy always concerned about the vulnerability of the borders of an emirate with an area corresponding to half that of Sergipe.
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