The next few weeks will not only define the legal future of Vice President Cristina Kirchner in the face of the more than five cases she faces in court. They will also be final with regard to policy. The wing most closely linked to the present Alberto Fernández, prefers that he stick to defending himself in his processes, and influence little in the formation of lists for the electoral primaries, which will define the successor for the position in 2023 and part of Congress.
This Tuesday (29), Cristina Kirchner will have a long section for her and the 13 accused in the public feasibility work to present their last defense in the case. The session starts at 9.30 am and will not have an exact end time. Of the processes against Cristina, this is the most advanced, and a conviction in this process could still take place in December.
At the same time, the process involving the supposed participation of the band of copitos de nieve in their attempt to assassinate the president is running. In this case, there are setbacks in what the deputy intended, that of clarifying the link between the right-wing extremist group, Federal Revolution, in an alleged coordinated action between Leonardo Morel’s group, who is in prison, and Macri’s businessman friend, Nicolas Caputo. Cristina wanted the removal of Judge Maria Eugenia Cacuphetti, who she considered close to Macri, but she will be maintained.
Today, the split between “Albertists” and “Christianists” in the government is almost fiercer than that between the opposition itself. Among the Peronists, Minister Wado de Pedro or someone else chosen by Cristina has a better chance. With the slight improvement in the country’s economy, albeit in the midst of chaos, but with inflation controlled by force of freezes, Sergio Massa is a possible candidate.
With less than 20% approval, it is difficult for Cristina to run directly to the post, and more likely to choose to continue as vice or rise to senator, to guarantee parliamentary immunity. In her last appearances and in conversations with her closest friends, Cristina’s concern is to rid her children Máximo, now a deputy, of accusations, and Florencia, a girl shaken by what her parents put her through, and who spent years in a recovery center in Cuba. Both are involved in one of the causes that are not more up-to-date than the current one. More than the center of power again, Cristina’s priority is to save her daughter, who went through sensitive depression and related problems, in hospital in Cuba. Of the two, it is the one with the most fragile situation, that of not having parliamentary immunity.
Cristina’s victories in the legal field were not few in these years, from the reform of the formation of the Court of Magistrates of the Country to the insistent questioning of prosecutors responsible for her causes. Three years after taking office and heading the country’s Senate, it can be said that Cristina’s priorities were on the side of Justice. Sector in which Fernández did not move.
If the Justice accepts the request for a 12-year prison term for the pubic viability work, something that should happen later this year, Cristina will have to undergo an impeachment in Congress to lose her immunity and, from then on, respond to the cause. . At the moment, this is not configured as possible, as the former representative has the votes in both houses to maintain her jurisdiction.
Although the victory of Luis Inácio Lula da Silva has encouraged the kirchneristas, who interpret it as a possible ride for their candidates in 2023, when the Argentine presidential succession takes place, local political analysts see that Lula’s proximity to the kirchneristas would have to be careful . “In a year, the most likely thing is that Lula will be dealing with a newly elected center-right force in Argentina. That is, no matter how much they call him to join the Peronist campaign, Lula will have to be skillful”, says the former -diplomat and political analyst Diego Guelar, Sheet🇧🇷
Power is actually being exercised in Argentina by two figures who do not go through the current mandate. They are vice-president Cristina Kirchner, who practically does not maintain daily contact with President Alberto Fernández, but with his Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, the architect of the freezes and the point of suspense in which the commitments to pay the US debt are found. $44 billion with the International Monetary Fund.
“The only way for them to supplant Alberto in their day-to-day life is not to go out together in photos and acts”, says Guelar. Thus, Cristina is free to act with militancy, just as negotiations with large companies are up to Massa, who burns himself in the name of not tarnishing Cristina’s image as leader of the sector’s most Kirchnerist wing, still an important stronghold of votes. . Enormous differences between these two administrations are in the advancement of anti-domestic violence legislation and in favor of abortion only by the woman’s will. Paulas that the Lula government does not seem to be able to move forward at this moment.
While in the process of the attack on her person, Cristina uses the hypothesis of linking Macri’s best friend, Nicolás Caputo, to the extremist kids who threatened her. In the causes of corruption against her and her children, as well as government officials, the strategy is to appeal to the “lawfare” crutch, a construction that easily catches hold of more radical leftists, such as those in her Kirchnerist base, but causes enormous division among justists. .
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