It is too early to say that Boris Johnson’s days in the UK government are numbered. But the British prime minister is facing a wave of defeats — whether in public opinion, due to a series of recent scandals, within the party itself, or in the electoral dispute, as happened this Friday (17).
It’s possible that his only joy in recent weeks has been the birth of yet another daughter.
In the midst of a frying process to which he has been subjected by members of his own legend, Boris took personal responsibility for the defeat of the Conservative Party in North Shropshire — historically a stronghold of the Conservatives.
A less attentive look at the result of the regional election could not perceive the scale of the loss, after all North Shropshire, alone, does not have such a decisive weight in the British political game at the national level. But the way in which the vote unfolded and the expressiveness of the results are being considered a harbinger of the downfall of the conservatives — or, more specifically, of Boris.
Liberal Democrat Helen Morgan won nearly 6,000 more votes than conservative Neil Shastri-Hurst. Losing is eventually part of the game, but the last election in North Shropshire, in 2019, saw Boris’ party win with a 23,000 vote advantage.
In addition, Conservative Party lawmakers have dominated the region for nearly 200 years and have never been defeated since North Shropshire was created in its current form in 1983. It is also worth remembering that the election was only called because the last incumbent, Conservative Owen Paterson, resigned after accusations of conflict of interest between public and private life. Boris tried to change rules to help him stay in office, but was unsuccessful.
“Tonight, the people of North Shropshire spoke on behalf of the British people. They said loud and clear: ‘Boris Johnson, the party is over,'” Morgan said in his victory speech. “His government, driven by lies and bullshit, will be held accountable. It will be examined, it will be challenged, and it can and will be defeated.”
The prime minister is being billed for this defeat — and he, following the metaphor, has already signed the payment order. “Clearly, the vote in North Shropshire is a very disappointing result, and I totally understand people’s frustration,” Boris said at a press conference on Friday. “I listen to what voters are saying in North Shropshire and in all humility I have to accept that verdict. Of course I take personal responsibility.”
Despite the historical hegemony in the region, several of Boris’s supporters predicted defeat. But even these were surprised by the extent of the opposition’s victory. “The voters in North Shropshire were fed up and they kicked us out and I think they wanted to send us a message,” Conservative Party chairman Oliver Dowden said in an interview with Sky News.
Asked by British radio if he still wanted Boris at the front of the party for the next national elections in 2021, Dowden replied: “Yes, and I’ll tell you why I want him to lead us in the next elections. big decisions, the prime minister got it right.”
Boris is often credited with being primarily responsible for the sweeping victory in the 2019 elections, although he is now accused of wasting political capital he once won. The election in North Shropshire, despite its regional scope, served, however, as a referendum on the popular assessment of the government and could be the trigger for changes in the course of the country’s command.
There are several factors that contributed to British dissatisfaction with the Prime Minister’s conduct. The main ones are related to the coronavirus pandemic. The UK is experiencing a spike in Covid-19 cases — driven by the potentially more contagious omicron variant — and earlier this week passed a new set of restrictions, unpopular with a significant number of Britons.
However, in the eyes of public opinion, the supposed hypocrisy of the highest levels of government sounds more serious than the health emergency. The recent series of scandals began when a party that would have been held in Downing Street, the seat of government, during the 2020 Christmas season, when face-to-face celebrations were banned due to health restrictions, came to light. The episode led to the resignation of one of Boris’s advisors.
Another similar situation was revealed this Thursday (16) by British newspapers The Guardian and The Independent. According to sources heard in the journalistic investigation, a group of about 20 government officials held a party on May 15, 2020, also in Downing Street.
Earlier that evening, then UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock (later involved in a sexual scandal himself) had made a public statement urging Britons to “stay at home as much as possible” and asking “please stick to the rules, keep an eye on your family and don’t take risks.”
Both Boris and Hancock, however, were at the party. Reports are that the prime minister and secretary were short-lived in Downing Street at the time, while other government officials were eating pizza and drinking wine and spirits late into the night — although the rules in force at the time only allowed two-person meetings. of different homes, as long as outdoors and with a minimum distance of two meters.
Also weighing on Boris is an episode in which he was held responsible — and his party fined — for a renovation of his official residence with unreported funds from a private donation. There are also complaints against the prime minister for trying to change parliamentary norms to help political allies, for his luxurious vacations abroad, for the dubious links of his government with some companies, and for accusations of patronage in the appointment of seats in the House of Lords (equivalent to the Senate ).
Can Boris Johnson be deposed?
Yes, but the process is bureaucratic and requires political articulation beyond the backroom. For this to happen, at least 15% of the Conservative Party bench (55 of Boris’s 361 supporters) in Parliament must write letters to the body known as the “1922 Committee”. If there is such a quorum, what the parliamentary system calls a “confidence vote” is called.
How does the vote of confidence work?
The 1922 Committee letters are confidential, so the only person who knows how many requests for the vote of confidence have been sent is the chairman of the committee, Graham Brady. It is also he who decides the date of the possible vote, in consultation with the leader of the Conservative Party.
In 2018, when then Prime Minister Theresa May faced a vote of confidence, the vote was taken on the same day the Committee chair announced that he had received enough letters to begin the process.
Open to voting, all Conservative MPs can vote for or against Boris. If the prime minister wins, he remains in office and cannot be challenged again for the next 12 months. If he loses, he is forced to resign and barred from competing for the next leader.
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