Understand what changes with the new rules that relax Covid zero in China

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After almost three years, China is finally showing signs that it has begun preparations for the end of the controversial Covid-zero policy. After protests in dozens of cities across the country, the National Health Commission issued new regulations for the control of the pathogen and ended the toughest measures that characterized China’s long battle against the coronavirus:

• Chinese people no longer need to take tests every 48 hours to enter closed places (with the exception of nursing homes, orphanages, hospitals, primary and secondary schools);

• The requirement for a PCR test upon arrival in some cities such as Shanghai and Beijing has also been abolished;

• Asymptomatic and infected people showing mild symptoms will no longer be taken to centralized quarantine facilities and will be able to self-isolate at home.

• Local authorities will no longer be able to lock down entire cities or districts. Isolations will be decided on a case-by-case basis and should be restricted to residential units/condominiums with confirmed infections;

• The notorious health codes will no longer be checked, except in nursing homes and hospitals. This is one of the main changes, since, since 2020, Chinese people have been obliged to link their identities to a system that tracks all their movements and stores test or vaccination data. Before, only those considered low risk (green code) could circulate, which led tens of thousands of people to quarantine just for living in or approaching points classified as risk areas.

As expected, the Chinese propaganda machine has already started to move to reduce public concerns. The state news agency Xinhua published a report on Monday (5) according to which “the most difficult period has passed” and “the pathogenicity of the omicron variant is weakening”.

The main organizer of Covid zero in China, Sun Chunlan, publicly acknowledged that, given the lower risks of contamination by the disease, the time has come for health authorities to “focus on new tasks”. There is, however, no prediction of when the borders will be fully reopened for passengers from abroad, and the eight-day quarantine after arriving in China remains mandatory.

Why it matters: China’s battle against the avalanche of Covid cases is just beginning – and it shouldn’t be simple.

• This Thursday (8), the former director of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in China, Feng Zijian admitted in a lecture at Tsinghua University that “about 60% of the population can be infected in the first wave, before the curve flattens out”. flatten”. That means 847 million people with Covid;
• Feng also admitted that the country will be forced to reopen before local governments reach robust vaccination targets among the elderly, so as to ensure some protection through herd immunity. The plan should lead to a considerable number of deaths;
• Don’t expect an immediate recovery after reopening. The significant volume of sick people will impact production chains across the country. With factories and ports stopped, China should experience a sharp decline in economic growth, with severe consequences for inflation rates on the planet (since it will produce less than world demand);
• The world will have to watch how the coronavirus behaves when it infects so many people at the same time. Experts heard by the Wall Street Journal speak of “a billion possibilities for adaptation”, which could lead to even more transmissible and vaccine-resistant variants.

what also matters

ByteDance, owner of the Chinese app TikTok, is being sued by the state of Indiana, in the US. The local attorney general, Republican Todd Rokita, accuses the company of collecting and transferring user data to China and exposing American children to adult content.

According to the New York Times, Rokita has asked for an emergency injunction and the imposition of civil penalties against the app.

Last week, the state of Maryland also adopted measures against TikTok, prohibiting the platform from being installed on official cell phones. The actions anticipate discussions in the US Congress, in which deputies and senators from both parties consider imposing restrictions on the company in 2023. ByteDance declined to comment on the accusations.

The US Department of Defense’s 2023 budget could include more than $10 billion in military aid to Taiwan over five years. The plan needs the approval of the US Congress.

• US$ 2 billion (R$ 10.4 billion) per year would be passed on through a program that provides subsidies and loans to other countries to buy US military equipment, services and training;
• On another front, US$ 1 billion (R$ 5.2 billion) would go annually in “emergency defense assistance” to the island.

The Pentagon justifies the spending to prevent China from “taking control, neutralizing or rendering ineffective civil and defense leadership” in the region. If the aid is approved, it will be the first direct US arms sale to Taiwan.

The project also foresees other controversial plans with less chance of success, such as transforming the island into a “preferential extra-NATO ally”, renaming the American mission in Taiwan to “embassy” (which would indicate recognition of sovereignty) and the forecast of sanctions against Chinese leaders in case of invasion.

Beijing has yet to react to the plan, which is expected to be put to a US vote in January.

Keep an eye

Xi Jinping decided to end the agenda of international commitments with a trip to Saudi Arabia. The Chinese leader arrived in Riyadh with the hope of deepening the partnership with the country, the world’s largest oil exporter. According to the Chinese foreign ministry, Xi will attend the first edition of the Sino-Arab Summit and met with the crown prince, Mohammad bin Salman.

Why it matters: it is Xi’s first visit to the Saudis since 2016, prompted by the geopolitical moment in the Middle East.

• China wants to take advantage of the strained relations between Riyadh and Washington since the execution of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, which would have been ordered by the MbS itself, to expand trade relations with Saudi Arabia;
• The meeting should end with the signing of a strategic partnership and the consolidation of agreements in the order of US$ 27 billion in various areas of cooperation.

to go deep

• Hospital Sírio-Libanês will hold the first Brazil-China Health Forum next Wednesday (14). The event will be virtual and will feature health authorities from both countries to explore business and cooperation possibilities. Interested parties should register via email [email protected] (free, in Portuguese and Chinese)
• Until January 18th, submission of papers in the areas of internationalization of the renminbi and investments in the Brics from the Congress of the International Association of Political Sciences are open. The panels, organized by professors from USP and FGV, will take place in Buenos Aires next year (free, in English)