Beijing has sharply tightened its definition of death from Covid-19, while the official figure for one of the worst outbreaks in China since the start of the pandemic diverges from anecdotal evidence, experience in other jurisdictions and analyst modeling.
The National Health Commission (CNS) confirmed the change on Tuesday night (20) in response to a question from local media about the low official count compared to reports of funeral homes working overtime. This week, financial news outlet Caixin reported that China has adapted its classification of Covid deaths.
Wang Guiqiang, a doctor who spoke at a CNS press conference, said that people who were presumed dead from other conditions, although positive for the virus, would not be counted in the official death toll from Covid. Wang said the CNS would only count those who died of respiratory failure or pneumonia after testing positive for the virus.
China has embarked on a surprising retreat from its Covid-zero playbook in recent weeks, lifting lockdowns, reducing testing and quarantine requirements and retiring contact tracing systems after nearly three years of strict protocols.
Chongqing, a megacity of more than 30 million people in southwest China, said this week that Covid patients with mild or no symptoms can go to work “as usual”.
Experts have questioned the death toll since the country abruptly dismantled its Covid-zero controls in early December. The death toll on the mainland has risen sevenfold since then, although the CNS revised that figure by minus one on Wednesday. This compares to Hong Kong, a city with more than 7 million inhabitants, where the daily death toll is in the double digits. The autonomous territory reported 39 deaths on Monday and 33 on Tuesday.
The change in the classification of deaths follows a move this month to stop counting asymptomatic infections, which previously made up the majority of cases in China’s official records. Since then, the number of cases in the country has dropped sharply, from a peak of nearly 40,000 daily cases last month to around 2,000 on most days this week.
Leo Poon, head of the division of public health laboratory sciences at the University of Hong Kong, said accurate case numbers were “essential” for China to adapt its response, adding that previously low infection levels had left much of the population “naive”. ” regarding the virus.
“I think we need to have that number to try to reallocate our resources […] to the right regions or cities to try to minimize the impact of the virus,” he said. “For example, do we have enough doctors, do we have enough health support?”
Several models, including one partially funded by the Chinese Center for Disease Control, have predicted that China could suffer up to 1 million deaths during its reopening phase if Beijing continues to lift restrictions.
The definition of death from Covid varies in different countries. The UK compiles a count of those who mention Covid as a cause of death on death certificates and a separate count of people who die 28 days after testing positive, with some variation in reporting patterns for each of the UK’s nations.
The United States counts any mortality in which the coronavirus contributed to the cause of death.
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