Gabriel Boric’s government has not yet started, but his first political problem is clear: how to make the Constituent Assembly reach an agreement through moderation and, therefore, have the Charter approved in next year’s referendum. If that doesn’t happen, says sociologist Eugenio Tironi, the leftist’s management will be compromised in the first year.
However, for Tironi, the option of the ultra-rightist José Antonio Kast will no longer exist. “He is deflating and will go back to being a minor political figure”, he predicts, having forced the democratic right to back down and, now, defeated, having to go through a process of self-criticism and reconstruction.
The sociologist, who participated in the “no” campaign in the plebiscite that ended the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet (1973-1990) (the “no” option was for the general’s departure) and in the communications area of ​​the government of former president Ricardo Lagos (2000-2006), spoke with the leaf, in Santiago.
Read the main excerpts from the interview below.​
Which factor best explains Gabriel Boric’s victory in this election? The main thing was the entry of an important portion of young people into the institutional framework of our society. From the middle and popular classes, well educated and committed to this century’s agenda, ecology, diversity and human rights. Which were already the youth agenda, but which now translates into votes, into citizens who wanted to leave their homes to participate, this is a huge change in our political culture.
Will there be a “kastismo” after this vote? Or does the figure of Kast tend to deflate? I believe it will deflate. It’s already deflating. He may continue in politics, but he will go back to being that small figure, who got 8% of the vote in the 2017 elections. That’s because the democratic right and the Chilean center-right had come a long way, made a lot of effort to move away from Pinochet’s legacy, to modernize with respect to civil rights, to show concern for human rights, to no longer be identified with authoritarian projects.
And now he’s going to realize what a mistake it was, suddenly, with a quick gesture, to give up all that effort. Throw it all in the trash to embrace an old-fashioned messianic figure. This will be costly, the parties in the right-wing alliance will fragment, self-criticism and a process of healing will be necessary. And in the process, they will disown and isolate Kast.
Next year will also be the year of the Constituent Assembly. We will have a plebiscite, and the new Charter can be accepted or rejected. How will this impact Boric management? The Constituent Assembly will be very central to the new government. Today we have a large group of legislators there who are fulfilling a pamphleteering rather than a pragmatic role. They are at the Constituent Assembly to give visibility, to strengthen a cause. And this is not functional for the writing of the Charter. If this group is stronger than the pragmatic group, the Constitution can be rejected. And if that happens, it would be a shot in Boric’s wing, it could spell the end of his rule.
For Boric, who is so identified with the constitutional process, it is essential to reach an agreement for moderation in the Constituent Assembly. That the approval plebiscite is a mere procedure, easily approved, and not a polarized dispute, much less a defeat.
And what can he personally do to make this happen? Boric will have to do something, but he cannot intervene in the process, which is sovereign and independent. It will need to convince the forces that support it to guide its legislators to seek moderation and compromise. This process starts now, when Elisa Loncón’s replacement is chosen. [há eleição para uma nova mesa de direção da Assembleia Nacional no próximo dia 4 de janeiro]. Until now, he has been concerned about his own campaign, now his project has to have the Constituent Assembly among his priorities. If there is a defeat in the referendum, it will be like a personal defeat for Boric.
Should the Constituent Assembly worry you more than the division of Congress, then? Yes, because Boric graduated from Parliament and has more skills in dealing with the legislative issue. Furthermore, it must be remembered that the right will fragment even further. So, the very idea that Congress is tied will be called into question. Right and center-right parties will detach themselves from the union brought about by the need to support Kast, many will want to detach from this figure more than others, and then Boric will have those votes for his reform projects. Preventing the Constituent Assembly from going badly will be a harder task for Boric than negotiating with Congress.
In your opinion, what will be the legacy of Sebastián Piñera at the end of his term? I think it will be rated better by history than it is being rated now. Its greatest asset will have been vaccination and the fight against the pandemic. But it should be noted that it did not respond to the protests of 2019 in an authoritarian way, it negotiated and opened space for the Constituent Assembly.
And the fact that he passed the presidential sash to the youngest president in the history of Chile will also be marked. Ricardo Lagos was thrilled to pass the sash to Michelle Bachelet, the first female president in Chilean history. I’m sure Piñera was relieved that Boric won and will be thrilled to hand him the sash. And it will be very good for your national and international image, so worn out.
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