Russia has changed the commander of its forces for the second time in three months in the invasion of Ukraine, which will be one year old at the end of February.
President Vladimir Putin has promoted a change that seems designed to silence hard-liners who demand a radicalization of actions in the neighboring country, sending the chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, Valeri Gerasimov, to the post.
Much criticized for the conduct of the war until October, when for the first time the Ministry of Defense announced a single commander for the invasion, Serguei Surovikin, Gerasimov is a figure of the Kremlin’s cup.
Although little is known about Putin’s decision-making process, he and Minister Serguei Choigu (Defense) were always the only ones to participate in any military meetings about the crisis before and after the assault against the neighbor.
Gerasimov has always been one of the preferred targets of nationalists who demand more toughness in dealing with war. They express themselves through military bloggers, but also through two more prominent public figures: Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and the head of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
The two have forces in active combat in Ukraine, and Prigojin has decided to spend the last few weeks on a tour of Donetsk, where his troops are close to conquering the city of Soledar, home to a rich salt mining industry and a port to try to capture Bakhmut, strategic point of conflict reduced to ruins in the clash with Kiev.
According to a political observer in Moscow, speaking with reservation, there is a perception that the Russian president was irritated by Prigojin’s publicity, recording videos and claiming victories just for himself.
He is known as “Putin’s chef”, for having taken care of the Kremlin’s food services, and is a controversial figure: an ex-convict, looking for volunteers in prisons for his group, which has been operating for years in points like Syria or African countries. .
As he and Kadyrov constantly criticized the conduct of the war, analysts suggested that their targets were Choigu and Gerasimov. Even General Aleksandr Lapin, the object of objections for his action in Ukraine, appears to have been promoted to head of Russian ground forces.
But that is not all. According to the same observer, the idea that Moscow will try an offensive in February or March, already denounced by Kiev, is gaining strength in political circles. In this sense, a more political face, since Gerasimov has been in office since 2012 alongside Putin, would be more easily associated with both success and failure.
As ever, Russia’s opacity under Putin makes assertions difficult, but the logic is there. Gerasimov was considered one of the leaders of the operation, which never had an official head until October, when Surovikin was appointed.
He led Moscow’s successful withdrawal from the city of Kherson, without the same military losses that occurred in Kharkiv before his arrival. He also operated the air strike campaign that put much of Ukraine in the dead of winter.
But the apparent Russian success in the east, in Donetsk, has been credited only to Prigozhin and his mercenaries. Not by chance, in its daily report this Wednesday (11), the Ministry of Defense said that the fighting in Soledar was still going on and that it was too early to claim victory.
Surovikin, a decorated general known as the “Butcher of Aleppo” for his role in the Syrian city during Russia’s intervention in the Arab country’s civil war, will be one of Gerasimov’s deputies. The other two, Oleg Saliukov and Alexei Kim, were not involved in the actions in Ukraine.
While politics weaves its threads, in Soledar the blood continues to flow. According to the Ukrainian president, Volodymir Zelensky, the situation is critical, but the Russians still cannot call the city their own.
American military analyst Michael Kofman, from the CNA center (USA), he wrote doubt the cost-effectiveness of the slaughter reported by both sides in the city for Russia. On the Ukrainian and Russian channels linked to the war on Telegram, a battle is described with hundreds of dead thrown by the ruins of the small town.
It has an extra attraction, which many commentators point out when showing Prigojin’s interest in conquering it: the rich salt mines, which have great potential for economic and even military exploitation, enabling the safe parking of forces.
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