Elderly population in the world will double by half of the century, shows UN

by

The world is increasingly populous. And also older.

The number of people aged 65 and over on the planet, currently around 761 million, is expected to more than double by mid-century, reaching 1.6 billion by 2050.

The data are part of projections that the UN released last year, when the fact that we reached 8 billion inhabitants dominated the discussions. Now, the organization warns that it is necessary to talk about population aging – and that the topic is urgent.

Having a larger share of seniors, of course, is a good indicator. The fact that those over 65 are 9.6% of the world’s 8 billion, while they will be 16.5% of the 9.7 billion by 2050, reflects among other things successful societies in extending life expectancy.

If aging, however, is not accompanied by consistent public policies —thought from childhood, and not just in old age—, the phenomenon will trigger more unequal and impoverished societies, says the UN in a report released this Thursday (12).

Data analysis allows an alert for Brazil. Today, the elderly (20.5 million) account for 9.5% of the Brazilian population. In the middle of the century, they will be 22% of the total —a figure above the global average—, if the UN projections for the country are confirmed.

The number is not as expressive as that observed in other regions, but it does not fail to draw attention. In Europe, for example, where the issue is already sensitive, the elderly currently represent 20% of the population. In 20 years, it will be almost 30% of the total, which opens discussions ranging from retirement to lack of manpower.

Under the umbrella of concerns expressed by the United Nations is the labor market. Older people continue to contribute economically—many remain in paid employment, or even contribute within the family with child care.

Still, stereotypes in the employment sector, such as ageism, are impediments. And another phenomenon, which is growing at a gallop in Brazil, is also a cause for concern: informality. “The wide spread of informal employment and other precarious forms of work threatens access to retirement and other social protection benefits, putting the economic security of older people at risk,” the report says.

Elderly people are more likely to live in households with less infrastructure than the population of working age, a reality that is even more common in developing countries, where social protection systems are less established, says the UN.

The situation is worse for women. Poverty levels in old age are higher among them, informs the organization. The reason? Lower levels of participation in the formal labor market, shorter careers and lower wages compared to men.

The UN draws special attention to the unequal distribution of domestic work, which restricts the possibility of women to act more actively in the labor market and, consequently, reduces their pensions. She also recalls that they are the majority of those employed in the care economy, “a poorly regulated area where workers normally earn low wages”.

“And given women’s longer life expectancies, they are more likely than men to be widowed, less likely to remarry and more likely to live alone – three traits that can exacerbate economic insecurity.”

In addition to the economic harvest, the report highlights the need to improve health systems. According to the UN, many nations still rely on the idea that elderly people live with children or grandchildren, a reality that has changed. “Models of care that rely exclusively or primarily on families are increasingly inadequate.”

And the Covid pandemic has highlighted the failures in elderly care. “Underfunded care systems, precarious working conditions of health teams and insufficient home care policies have contributed to a high number of deaths among the elderly”, says the UN.

The challenge of population aging also affects regions in different ways. Most will have about a fifth of their populations over 65 by 2050: Latin America and the Caribbean (19%), Oceania (18.5%), North America (24%) and Asia (19%). The exception is Africa: the continent most challenged by high birth rates will have only 5.7% of its inhabitants in this age group.

You May Also Like

Recommended for you