Upon landing in Brazil, on Monday (30), the German premier, Olaf Scholz, wanted more than to show European support for the new president. The mission was to lure Lula into an anti-Russian coalition, which would pave the way in South America to further isolate Moscow. He received a denial and the PT’s appeal for “China to put its hand in the dough”, helping to start a peace process.
Respect for Brazil’s conciliatory tradition is commendable, but Lula —who promised to raise the subject with Xi Jinping when he visits China in March— is disconnected from changes in Chinese diplomacy since the end of his second term in 2011. Convincing China Mediating peace talks with Russians and Ukrainians is a herculean task, far too complex for the Brazilian leader’s global ambitions.
It’s not that Beijing isn’t bothered. In February of last year, Vladimir Putin, received with pomp in China for the opening of the Winter Olympics, would have denied in closed meetings his speculated war intentions in Ukraine. In return, he received affection from Xi and promises of “a partnership without limits”. It took 20 days for it to advance on the Ukrainian borders.
When something of this magnitude happens, it is the duty of the Chinese media to closely follow the coverage of the state news agency Xinhua. But the invasion took Xinhua by surprise, leaving Chinese TV channels stunned, playing useless content from the day before. When it became clear that it would not be possible to continue ignoring the invasion, CCTV, the country’s main broadcaster, hastily assembled a panel of experts, groping the subject without crossing political lines that at that point were not yet demarcated.
The speech was only aligned at the end of the day: requests for moderation, without ceasing to blame the West for having, in the propagated view, added fuel to the fire. It was a sign that Xi was navigating in the dark.
Beijing and Moscow have deepened ties for years, providing counterweights to Western ambitions. Business boomed, China financed several Russian infrastructure projects, and Putin himself received a Friendship Medal from Xi, China’s highest award for foreigners.
The path chosen in the war up to this point was to take the body away. In resolutions that condemned Russia at the UN, China abstained. Perhaps expecting a quick fall from Kiev, he began to advocate, in no hurry to engage, a mediated exit that took “Russian security concerns” into account.
Silence guaranteed Russian oil and gas at generous discounts, in addition to increased trade in yuan. As different as Ukraine’s situation is from Taiwan’s, the conflict has also given Xi an opportunity to observe what Western reactions would be if he took a similar path.
However, the defense of sovereignty has always been one of the pillars of Chinese diplomacy, an argument for claiming the right to the island that it sees as a rebel province. Inertia has also begun to take its toll, especially as the Russian error in expecting a quick capitulation is clear. Beijing, of course, is not happy to have been dragged into this fight with no end in sight, but it shouldn’t budge now.
The first post-pandemic Chinese year promises to be economically difficult, and attention is focused on the domestic scenario. At least for now, Lula’s appeals for the Chinese to mess with this wasp’s nest should go in one ear and out the other. The exception remains an eventual use of nuclear weapons by the Russians, but if we reach that point, Brazil will only be a supporting player in the conversation between people with the power to extinguish humanity by pressing half a dozen buttons.
With a wealth of experience honed over 4+ years in journalism, I bring a seasoned voice to the world of news. Currently, I work as a freelance writer and editor, always seeking new opportunities to tell compelling stories in the field of world news.
