How easy are Chinese ‘spy’ balloons to shoot down?

The Chinese “spy” balloon that flew over US soil this week, prompting the postponement of the US secretary of state’s visit to China, is a tool guided by artificial intelligence, according to a US expert.

For William Kim, an expert on tracking balloons at the Marathon Initiative think tank in Washington, these airships are powerful tracking tools that are difficult to bring down.

– A ‘spy’ balloon guided by artificial intelligence?

Although the appearance of the Chinese balloon is similar to that of an ordinary meteorological balloon, some elements are different, Kim points out.

Its imposing payload, which is visible, consists of electronic instruments for guidance and tracking, as well as solar panels to power the whole.

According to him, this balloon may have guidance technologies that the US military does not yet have.

The expert explains that with advances in artificial intelligence (IA), a balloon can now be steered by simply changing altitude to reach a suitable point to find a wind that will push it in the desired direction.

Previously it had to either be guided from the ground with a cable “or you left it and it went where the wind pushed it,” explains William Kim.

“What has happened very recently with advances in artificial intelligence is that we can now have a balloon (…) that doesn’t even need to have its own means of propulsion. By simply controlling the height, it can control its direction,” he summarizes.

Such technology may however include communications with its base.

– What are the advantages over satellites?

According to Kim, satellites are increasingly vulnerable to attacks from Earth and space.

Balloons, on the other hand, have multiple advantages, starting with their ability to evade radar.

“They are made of materials that do not reflect light, they are not metal. Therefore, although they may be rather large (…) their detection is difficult”.

If they are small enough, the spying mechanisms and payload of these airships can even go undetected.

Balloons also have the advantage of being able to remain in a fixed position over the tracked target, unlike spy satellites which must remain in orbit.

“They can fly for months over the same position,” assures the expert.

– Could the balloon have reached the US by accident?

For William Kim, this is a “real possibility.” The Chinese balloon may indeed have originally been sent to collect data outside the US border or much higher and suffered some damage.

“These balloons don’t always work perfectly,” he says, noting that the Chinese device was flying at a height of about 46,000 feet above the ground, instead of the 65,000 or 100,000 feet at which instruments of this type usually fly.

“It’s definitely a bit low (…) If the goal was to make it harder to spot, harder to shoot down, it would make sense to send it higher.”

– Why can’t the US take it down?

Bringing down the balloon is not as easy as it looks, warns Kim.

“These balloons run on helium (…) you can’t just shoot it and make it catch fire” like a remote control, the expert explains.

“They’re not things that explode or pop,” he continues. “If you poke a hole in it, it’s just going to deflate very slowly.”

William Kim recalls how in 1998 the Canadian Air Force sent an F-18 fighter to attempt to shoot down an out-of-control weather balloon.

“They gassed it with 20mm ammunition. And yet it took six days to come down».

For Kim, it is not clear whether surface-to-air missiles work against this type of balloon, as their guidance systems are indeed designed to hit fast targets.

RES-EMP

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