At the end of January, the head of the Air Mobility Command of the US Air Force, General Mike Minihan, made a gloomy prediction: in a memo, he estimated that the United States and China would go to war by 2025, probably over Taiwan.
Two weeks later, the news was filled with reports of an alleged Chinese spy balloon flying over the Malmstrom base in Montana. Tough statements by the US government followed, with Joe Biden promising to do whatever is necessary to safeguard the country’s sovereignty.
These news seem disconnected, but they are not. Those who follow Sino-US relations closely have noticed that the tone in Washington has for some time now become excessively belligerent.
The increasingly alarmist news gives American society a sense of urgency, and fear is reinforced by violent speeches. In this sense, what seems increasingly obvious is verified: the American military is gradually preparing the nation for a war against China.
I do not dispute the veracity of the accusations about the Chinese balloon. Analysts mention that the device was probably carrying out intelligence activity and would have the capacity to collect sensitive information from the military base, such as radars and communication channels – Beijing says it only carried out meteorological monitoring. Nor do I question the American reaction to taking it down, since in 2019 Beijing made a similar fuss with an American balloon that invaded Chinese airspace.
The point is the media spectacle. Such an occurrence could be handled through diplomatic and military channels. Congressmen would even make some noise, but an efficient government would know how to control the narrative, managing the concerns of deputies and senators with confidential briefings, as is usual, and eventually rendering accounts to voters in a firm but moderate way.
That doesn’t seem to have been the concern. Biden has ridden the anti-China bandwagon, aware that such speeches earn him rare bipartisan support in Congress. And he is not the only one to gain from such a posture.
As the world watches the slow unfolding of a potentially apocalyptic conflict, there are those who are profiting — and a lot. The Pentagon has requested an additional US$30.7 billion (R$161.7 billion) for its 2023 budget, reaching an astronomical US$773 billion (R$4 trillion), an increase of 4.1%.
In practice, Americans spent more than the GDP of all Latin American countries, not counting the figures for Mexico and Brazil. China spent less than a third of that amount last year, US$ 229 billion (R$ 1.2 trillion). Alarmism also helps private companies: giants like Raytheon Technologies and Lockheed Martin pocketed US$ 100 million in 2022 with a Taiwanese missile maintenance agreement alone, a contract obviously mediated by American Defense.
In academia and politics, it has become commonplace to point to China as the cause of all of the country’s problems. At networking events between researchers from think tanks or government officials in Washington, the likelihood of hearing inconsistent analyzes is huge. It became an easy shortcut for less talented people to grow their careers, with direct consequences on the way politicians operate.
Restoring dialogue will be crucial, even though that path seems increasingly narrow. In the rhetorical war, who shouts the most has prevailed, at least until the actual shots are fired. And so supporters of such irresponsibility may realize that the age of talk may be gone.
With a wealth of experience honed over 4+ years in journalism, I bring a seasoned voice to the world of news. Currently, I work as a freelance writer and editor, always seeking new opportunities to tell compelling stories in the field of world news.
