The future of the Russian president Vladimir Putin in power has become less certain in the wake of the country’s invasion of Ukraine, a Western diplomat said today, but it is not possible to predict when any changes might occur in the Kremlin.

As the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches, some in the Russian elite fear the war will drag on, costing lives and draining resources, and that Putin’s hopes of salvaging his reputation have been dashed.

But he remains entrenched in power, according to five senior Russian sources.

The official said Putin was in a much more settled political landscape a year ago, before Moscow launched what it calls a special operation in Ukraine, but that is now more uncertain.

“People are talking about succession in a way they weren’t talking about a year ago. But what there is not, in a place like Russia, is a clear path to change.”said the Western official speaking to reporters on condition of anonymity.

The official said it would be difficult for Putin to lose the presidential election in Russia, which is expected to be held in 2024, if he is a candidate.

But the official added that while they believed at the time of the constitutional amendment in 2020 that Putin would remain in power until the 2030s, that now looks less likely.

“At that point, my assessment was that there was a political leadership that we would have for the next decade“, the official said.

“I think it’s a lot less certain now, but I’m not saying any change is going to happen very soon“, the official added, saying the timing of any change is “impossible to predict“.