Estonians go to the polls today to elect members of a new parliament, in a vote that could bolster far-right nationalists who have opposed continued military aid to Ukraine.

Prime Minister Kaya Kalas’ center-right Reform Party is projected to win the election, but will likely be forced to form a coalition to stay in power. According to opinion polls, it is estimated that he will gather a percentage of 24-30%, while the far-right EKRE 14-25% (in 2019 it secured 17.8% of the votes). The Center Party is predicted to receive 16-19%, the liberals of “Estonia 200” 9-15%, the Social Democrats (SDE) 8-11.5% and the center-right party “Fatherland” 7-9%.

Estonia, a country of 1.3 million people bordering Russia, is a member of the European Union and NATO. Last year he led international calls for increased military aid to Ukraine. Tallinn’s military aid to Kiev currently exceeds 1% of Estonia’s GNP and is the largest of any other country in proportion to the size of its economy.

“My biggest adversary believes that we should not support Ukraine, that we should only pursue our own interest,” Prime Minister Callas had said in an interview she gave to Agence France-Presse (AFP) last week.

According to EKRE head Martin Helme, Estonia “must not further exacerbate tensions” with Moscow. The far-right party focused its election campaign on ending military aid to Kiev and called for no more refugees to be accepted from Ukraine.

Frustrated by the Estonian government’s aggressive stance towards Moscow, many Russian-speakers (representing almost 1/4 of the population) are likely to choose abstention in today’s parliamentary elections, even if they do not support the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But according to a recent poll, only 11% of Russian-speakers who decided to vote say they will choose EKRE, 45% expressed a preference for the centrists and 35% appeared undecided.

Today’s parliamentary elections find Estonia in a difficult economic situation, with inflation (18.6%) among the highest in the European Union.