Australia will buy three US Virginia-class nuclear powered submarines, with an option to acquire two more, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said today.

US President Joe Biden and Australian and British Prime Ministers Anthony Albanese and Rishi Sunak are set to unveil details of the AUKUS partnership at the San Diego Naval Base in California.

Three factors shape this decision

  • First, the strategic calculation is that Australia must be able to defend open sea lanes and lines of communication when it is completely dependent on international trade. The nation’s economic prosperity depends on access to these sea lanes. As an island continent, it is vulnerable to any threat to 16 submarine cables. This would not matter if Australia could assume unfettered access to sea lanes, but it cannot assume that in a world where major powers defy international law – witness Russia in Ukraine and China in the South China Sea . If Australia cannot undertake open access to the maritime arena, it should seek to secure access.
  • Second, the government believes that Australia’s existing fleet will become too vulnerable. Collins-class submarines use diesel-electric power systems that require them to stay close to the surface for hours at a time so they can pump air into their systems. This exposes them to detection. Crucially, Defense advice is that this risk is increasing as quantum computers and artificial intelligence make satellites and other forms of surveillance more powerful. The shift to nuclear propulsion dramatically reduces the risk.
  • Third, the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) wants a new, more powerful fleet. The bottom line is that Australia needs submarines that can go further, faster and stay on station longer. A Collins class submarine takes 10 days to travel from Perth to Sydney. a Virginia class can do it in three. One takes 30 days to reach Hawaii, the other only 10. Additionally, the transition and future vessels will carry cruise missiles as well as torpedoes so they can hit targets both on land and at sea.