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Projections point to a Republican victory in an election in Virginia, a thermometer of US politics

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Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, will be Virginia’s new governor, according to projections by the Associated Press news agency and CNN and MSNBC. The victory, if confirmed, will put more pressure on Democrats and the government of President Joe Biden.

The state election, held this Tuesday (2), usually points out the direction of US politics. With 97% of the ballots counted, Youngkin appears with 51% of the votes, ahead of Democrat Terry McAuliffe, with 48.3%. The difference between the two is around 90,000 votes.

The distance between the candidates in the exit polls was so small that American TVs claimed that it was not possible to name the winner of the dispute.

The polls were closed at 19:00 (20:00 in Brasília). The final result, with 100% of the votes, may still take a while, as votes will be accepted sent by mail posted until this Tuesday and that reach the electoral authorities by, at the latest, Friday (5).

If Youngkin confirms the good result, this will be the first major Republican electoral victory since the party lost the presidential election of 2020, in an even more painful setback for the Democrats because in 2020 Joe Biden won the state by a margin of ten points percentages.

Another election held on Tuesday also worries Democrats. Gov. Phil Murphy seeks re-election in New Jersey against Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Surveys showed Murphy more than ten points ahead, but the tally shows a tight result. With 78% of the votes already analyzed, Ciatarelli added up to 50.2% of the votes, against 49% for Murphy.

If the defeats are confirmed, they will be another hurdle in the president’s pile of problems. In addition to the drop in popularity since the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, two trillion-dollar investment packages are stalled in Congress, in large part due to a lack of consensus among members of the party itself.

Youngkin, 54, is a former president of the Carlyle financial group, where he worked for 25 years. He left the company in late 2020 and months later went on a campaign trail. Born in Richmond, capital of Virginia, he got a scholarship to Rice University, Texas, for playing basketball, and even played in the American college league. After graduating, he began his career in finance in 1990 and joined Carlyle in 1995. At the company, he built a fortune estimated by Forbes at US$440 million.

In the campaign, the Republican bet on the profile of a businessman who is not political and stood as a defender of Christian values ​​and the right of parents to intervene in the content taught in schools, a way to remove from the school curriculum themes such as racial prejudice and books that describe sex scenes, as well as other subjects that are considered politically or ideologically charged.

Youngkin also opposes mandatory Covid-19 vaccinations for employees and has pledged to cut taxes, loosen labor rules to create jobs and strengthen math education.

“In the last eight years, neighboring states have grown up to 120% faster than Virginia. In my world, if your competitors grow 120% more, you get fired. Democrats should be fired,” he said at a rally in Richmond, echoing Donald Trump’s catchphrase when he hosted The Apprentice.

Youngkin received public support from the former president, but tried not to be associated with him, so as not to scare off independent voters. Steve Bannon, former Trump strategist, held a rally in support of the candidate, which the former US leader attended by telephone — Youngkin himself did not attend.

McAuliffe, 64, started the campaign with a good advantage over his rival, but reached the final stretch of the dispute in a technical draw in the polls. Its poor voting performance signals that Democrats are likely to face difficulties in the next midterm legislative elections, at the end of 2022. Currently, the party commands the House and Senate, but with very little advantage.

The son of a Democratic politician, McAuliffe was born in Syracuse, New York, and began to be an entrepreneur while still in his teens. In addition to a career in the banking sector, he invested in areas such as telecommunications and electric cars and got involved in somewhat controversial deals, such as the sale of a company based in Bermuda that would later fail, leaving 12,000 unemployed.

A veteran, he ruled Virginia between 2014 and 2018 and elected his successor. Close to the Clinton family, he managed Hillary’s campaign for the 2008 Democratic presidential run.

In the current campaign, McAuliffe has pledged to uphold civil rights, such as abortion and same-sex marriage, and to fight racial inequality. It also pledged to generate more jobs and improve public education, in addition to expanding access to health.

Due to the importance of the election, the party’s top names went to the state to participate in rallies for the Democratic candidate, including President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Barack Obama and Stacey Abrams, Georgian Democrat celebrated for the fight for the fight. right to vote.

In speeches at electoral events, they indicated that a defeat would mean victory for trumpism and the risk of loss of rights, such as abortion, as has occurred in states run by republicans.

The election

Virginia increased early voting possibilities this year. In addition to participation by mail, several polling stations were open over the course of six weeks. The change sought to increase voter turnout, which is usually below 50% in local elections.

Overall, the state’s gubernatorial election indicates which way the American political balance is tipping. In 2008, Obama won the White House with a landmark victory and saw, the following year, the Democrats lose the Virginia government. In 2010, then, Republicans comprehensively won the so-called “midterms”, midterm legislative elections, and regained power in Congress, blocking much of the then president’s proposals in the following years.

In 2017, the opposite happened: the Democrats won in Virginia a year after Trump came to power and, the following year, regained control of the House in the “midterms”. Since the state’s governor election takes place during the first year in office of the president chosen the previous year, the race ends up becoming a snapshot of the White House occupant’s assessment at that time.

This Tuesday, there were also votes for the government of big cities, like Atlanta, Boston and New York, where Democratic victories were expected. Eric Adams, former police officer and president — equivalent to deputy mayor — of the Brooklyn area, became the second black mayor to run New York and maintained Democratic dominance, according to projections by the Associated Press and CNN.

The party has run the city continuously since 2002. Polls show it has a 40 percentage point advantage over Republican Curtis Sliwa, a radio host.

In Boston, there was an unusual dispute between two non-party women. One of them, Michelle Wu, won and will become the first woman to rule the city. Its main competitor, Anissa George, has already made a speech acknowledging defeat. Both serve on the city council — the equivalent of the City Council — and have received support from Democrats, who have ruled the city since the 1930s. The current mayor, Kim Janey, has endorsed Wu’s candidacy.

In Atlanta, the current mayor, Democrat Keisha Bottoms, decided not to run for re-election. There are now 14 candidates in the running and three black Democrats are singled out as favorites: former mayor Kasim Reed and city councilors Andre Dickens and Felicia Moore.

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Barack Obamademocrat partyDonald TrumpJoe BidenKamala HarrisRepublican PartysheetUSAvirginia

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