From the end of the Second World War, in 1945, until the dissolution of the Soviet Union, in 1989, the world became hostage to the ideological confrontation called the Cold War, which at times threatened to lead to a catastrophic nuclear conflict.
Mutual hostility and distrust between the United States and the USSR led to fierce competition for political influence, as well as an arms race that continues to this day. It can be said that the original Cold War did not end — it just changed, with the growing rivalry between Beijing and Washington starting in the late 1970s.
There are more differences than similarities between the situations described above. The US-USSR antagonism was based on a deep and irreconcilable ideological dichotomy. Both sought military supremacy and political and economic support in a bipolar world that no longer exists in today’s globalized environment.
The Warsaw Pact disappeared, and NATO metamorphosed, moving eastward. The current differences between the US and Russia are predominantly political and with China, economic.
The current military power of Russia and the US can be considered equivalent, while that of the emerging Asian power is quantitatively and qualitatively inferior. The Americans have a total of 5,550 nuclear warheads, of which 1,700 are in firing position, while Russia has 6,257 warheads, with 1,600 ready to fire. It is estimated that China has around 300 to 4,001.
The Cold War of the second half of the 20th century was expressed in the accumulation of megatons, while the three current participants seem to favor the preservation of a controllable international order that offers — at least for the time being — more advantages than risks. There is no lack of provocation and friction, but each one has been able to avoid attitudes that could lead to the disruption of the existing unstable balance.
Although it is still the most powerful nation in the world, the USA seems to have understood that it is impossible to act in a hegemonic way on the world stage, as it happened at the end of the 20th century.
A viable and lasting understanding with China and Russia will be essential to address critically important regional and global issues such as the eventual denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, the new reality in Afghanistan and the dangers of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East and beyond.
Success in negotiating and adopting international norms and standards of conduct that strengthen peace and security, however, necessarily depends on collective effort. Distrust and hostility between the protagonists will inevitably lead to a world that is more dangerous and less capable of promoting the search for common solutions to common problems.
This task requires vision, moderation and above all rational behavior on the part of world leaders, as well as encouragement and cooperation from other countries and civil society, avoiding unnecessary friction, prioritizing convergent interests and taking into account the larger goals and aspirations of the international community. .
The evolution of the new Cold War could generate a turning point in favor of strengthening the security of all humanity. In this context, a new paradigm of global security will have to be non-discriminatory in order to provide guarantees for everyone, not just a few armed countries.
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