If the origin of the escalation that led protests against prices to become a national revolt in Kazakhstan is still murky, Vladimir Putin made crystal clear the political victory he has reaped so far in the episode.
Very handy, for him, given that the week is full of meetings to debate the ultimatum that the Russian made to the West by placing troops close to Ukraine and presenting his terms for peace in the region.
The Russian president, after intervening with troops from his miniature version of NATO, the CSO (Collective Security Treaty Organization), saw the situation stabilize in his most important neighbor in Central Asia. And he spoke like a tsar, or general secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, this Monday (10).
“These were not the first nor the last attempts to interfere in the internal affairs of our states. The measures taken by the CTO clearly showed that we will not allow the situation to be balanced at home and we will not allow the so-called color revolutions”, said the Russian. to the leaders of the other five members of the military alliance.
It’s a vocalization of everything Putin has done in recent years to ensure so-called strategic depth to his borders — to surround himself with politically absorbed allies, like Belarus and now Kazakhstan, or to undermine neighbors who seek to enter Western clubs, like Ukraine. and in Georgia.
Russian could hardly be clearer. It has resurrected the concept of the color revolution, the nickname for the movement away from Moscow in the last two ex-Soviet countries in the 2000s. Selled in the West as pro-democracy acts, they are seen by the Russian elite as destabilizing blows.
As a result, neither Kiev nor Tbilisi is able to access NATO or the European Union as they would have liked, as they have part of their territories occupied by pro-Russian separatists — in the Ukrainian case, with the added burden of the loss of Crimea in 2014.
Putin’s speech is a milestone in this history. Reorganized in 2002, the SCOT has never been of practical use. In the intervention in the Kazakh crisis, a basically Russian operation, but with the presence of allies such as Belarus and Armenia to guarantee a supranational character, it managed to put almost 3,000 men in the country in two days.
Kazakh President Kassim-Jomart Tokayev even tried to sugarcoat the pill, saying that foreign troops are only securing strategic assets for the country, a major hydrocarbon producer and world leader in uranium, not to mention the more debatable virtual mining of bitcoins.
It was an imposition by the Kremlin, which did not want to see Russian forces repressing citizens of the neighboring country directly. Not only because of his image there, but also because Russian public opinion barely tolerates casualties in conflicts. Thus, the intervention comes cheap politically, as it happened in Syria, where the dirtiest job fell to mercenaries.
So far, 164 people have died in the melee, only 16 of them police. There are, according to the autocrat who has led the country since 2019, 1,300 injured and 8,000 arrested.
On Monday, he also declared the crisis over. “Constitutional order has returned,” he said, in a televised address, stating, however, that the “search for terrorists” continues in the country.
Putin, speaking imperially, gave a believable summary of what happened last week, as acts to free the price of liquefied petroleum gas used in cars devolved into shootings and attacks on public buildings across the country, with particular effect on most city, Almati, which was the capital in Soviet times and was called Alma-Ata.
“The threat to the Kazakh state emerged not from spontaneous protests and marches over fuel prices. It was because of destructive internal and external forces that took advantage of the situation,” said the Russian.
It is quite possible, lacking the names to the oxen. The former intelligence chief and others were arrested, adding to the inner leg of the crisis — now whether it was a preemptive move by Tokaev to assert power or a coup against him is anyone’s guess.
Likewise, foreign interference is unclear. For conspiracy theorists, the fact that Putin got what he wanted, to emerge sovereign from the crisis, only encourages the idea that if there was external action, it was to help the Russian.
As this is intangible, reality remains: the Russian president saw his delegation disembark for the tough talks with the US and NATO about the Ukraine crisis in Geneva, strengthened by the events on its southeastern flank.
This is exemplified by the receipt issued by the US over the weekend, when Secretary of State Antony Blinken complained about the desirability of CTO troops in Kazakhstan.
It’s everything Putin, who spent 2021 being called an oppressor and murderer by the Joe Biden government, could want to hear. He wants to be feared as a power leader.
Naturally, this picture could change if the situation deteriorates again in Central Asia. For now, after intervening on behalf of allies in Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, Putin is wearing the mantle of a revived tsar in the negotiations.
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