Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) have dominated Turkish political life for twenty years, and on Sunday, May 14, Erdogan hopes to continue his 20-year monopoly.

Read about: Recep Tayyip Erdogan: A sultan… a president

In these 2 decades, some sectors of Turkish society benefited and others degraded.

Winners

The priests

The Directorate of Religious Affairs (DIYANET) became a major social force under Mr. Erdogan, a devout Muslim whose Islamist party defied the secular foundations of post-Ottoman Turkey. Diyanet has its own television network, which weighs in on political debate, and a budget comparable to that of a medium-sized ministry. The breadth of her privileges has made her a target of secular opponents of the president, who denounce the increase in the number of Islamic mosques, Koran lessons, the influence of religious brotherhoods or orders. Its former head had caused a scandal with his lifestyle, which was deemed too wasteful.

The real estate and construction sector

Under Mr. Erdogan, the real estate sector and major construction projects boomed in Turkey, spurring growth. Some groups and businessmen, thanks to their political affinity with the government, secured golden public works. The frenzy changed the face of the country, with new real estate becoming available to millions of people and transforming the skyline of cities such as Istanbul. This development frenzy has been accompanied by the head of state’s increase in “crazy” projects, huge ambitious investments worth billions – bridges, highways, airports and so on – among them the Istanbul Canal, which in theory at least will allow double the traffic that so far passes through the Bosphorus, but it is still a long way off.

Conservative Muslim women

Mr Erdogan has championed the rights of more conservative Muslims, after decades of Turkey being a resolutely secular state.

Loyal Muslim women have thus gradually acquired the right to wear the headscarf – something forbidden – in universities, in public services, in the police, in parliament. For the head of state, the issue was completely personal as their two daughters, who cover their heads like their mother, “were not allowed to wear headscarves” at the university.

Lost

The mass media

The Turkish media, once a model of pluralism, has seen margins progressively shrink under Mr Erdogan. Observers estimate that 90% of the Turkish media are now under the control of the government or its supporters. The Turkish president favored the acquisition of newspapers and television networks by businessmen close to the government, who were given loans from the government. At the same time, he engaged in a crackdown on critical voices — which intensified after the failed coup of 2016.

According to the Turkish organization P24, 64 journalists are currently behind bars in Turkey.

The military

The Turkish army, for decades the guardian of the secular character of the Turkish state, which had repeatedly carried out military coups, gradually lost its influence on the political scene. The process was accelerated after the attempt coup of 2016, which was allegedly masterminded by US-exiled Muslim preacher Fethullah Gulen, once a staunch supporter of Mr. Erdogan.

The head of state reacted by carrying out sweeping purges and imprisoning hundreds of military personnel, some for life. The most senior officers were decimated, while the process reduced the capabilities of the main force on NATO’s eastern flank. The air force especially lost many pilots and officers.

The yes buts

The Kurds

After decades of repression from Turkish secular governments, like most minorities in Turkey, the Kurds helped elect and supported Mr Erdogan at first. The head of state tried for his part to promote their linguistic and cultural rights, started negotiations to end the war with the armed Kurdish separatist movement by offering greater autonomy to southeastern Turkey.

But after talks broke down and violence erupted in the period 2015-2016the Kurdish community – numbering 15 to 20 million members – found itself under increasing pressure pressure.

Dozens of Kurdish leaders were jailed or removed from office. The main minority party, the HDP, is at risk of being outlawed, accused of “terrorism”.

The middle class

Turkey experienced an economic boom in Mr. Erdogan’s first decade in power, which spawned a new middle class. But since 2013, the Turkish economy has experienced one crisis after another. According to the World Bank, Turkey’s gross domestic product, a measure of the country’s wealth, has fallen to the level it was during Mr. Erdogan’s first five years in power. With inflation skyrocketing, more than 85% official in 2022, the savings of millions of households went up in smoke. And many families are now struggling to make ends meet.