Since former President Lula da Silva had his political rights restored, he has returned to his status as a favorite in the 2022 presidential election. recent survey by the Datafolha Institute, Lula, from the Workers’ Party, is appointed with 48% of the voting intentions, which indicates that the chances of a victory still in the first round are strong. Jair Bolsonaro is in second place, far below, with high rejection, and his government’s approval in decline.
All attempts to create a “third way” have had little or no promising results. With Lula as the likely next president, the news was agitated from the first moment in an attempt to “discover”, or perhaps guide, who would be his vice president.
The Endless Search of a Vice Presidential Candidate
The variety of names being considered is impressive: Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD), Senator Omar Aziz (PSD), Pernambuco Governor Paulo Câmara (PSB), Maranhão Governor Flávio Dino (PSB), Senator Simone Tebet ( MDB), businesswoman Luiza Trajano, former Minister of Finance Henrique Meirelles (PSD), businessman Josué Gomes (PL and FIESP), among countless others.
In his November press conference at the European Parliament in Brussels, Lula joked that he already had 22 vices. One name, however, has gained prominence, allegedly having the support of former PT candidate Fernando Haddad, and not denied by Lula: former São Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin.
Lula’s favoritism spreads hope for the return of a sovereign government that seeks social justice, full employment and inclusive policies. The figure of Alckmin, however, promotes frustration. Famous for having no charisma (he is pejoratively called “chayote popsicle”), he is linked to the more conservative tendencies of the Catholic Church, linked for decades to Opus Dei, and his governments were characterized by a harsh neoliberalism. When he was deputy governor, he commanded the privatization program in São Paulo, selling state-owned Eletropaulo for a price considered very low.
Alckmin accumulated four terms in the government of São Paulo, a state nicknamed Tucanistão due to the longevity of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (whose symbol is a toucan) at the head of the state executive: 26 years. If the PT federal governments expanded education, Alckmin left teachers for almost four years without a salary increase, persecuted strikers and closed more than 2,000 classrooms.
Their governments in São Paulo had scandals of fraudulent bids, with the embezzlement of money intended for the purchase of orange juice for schools (Alckmin was nicknamed “snack thief”), bribes from the construction company Odebrecht and overbilling in contracts for maintenance of the lines by subway and train. One of the companies participating in the subway scheme, Alstom, later obtained a R$116 million pardon from the Alckmin government and a ten-year extension to the contracted service.
When Lula and Alckmin faced each other in the presidential election in 2006, two situations deserve to be highlighted. First, in the main televised debate between the two candidates, Alckmin was disconcerted when Lula asked him about privatizations and the dismantling of the state, a hallmark of the governments of his then party, the PSDB.
The second situation is the electoral result itself: Alckmin achieved the feat of receiving 2.4 million fewer votes in the second round than in the first. In the last presidential elections, in 2018, Alckmin ran again and achieved a new feat: he finished in fourth place with only 4.7% of the votes, the worst placement in the history of the PSDB.
Some implications of the Lula-Alckmin Plate
In addition to the problems described above, together with the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) (today MDB), the PSDB was the main party behind the 2016 coup. making an alliance with the PSDB could strengthen the thesis that there was no coup d’état, but a normal case of impeachment.
Lula’s eventual ticket with Alckmin, however, would not be with the PSDB, no matter how great the identification of the latter with the “Toucans”. With the victory of the current governor of São Paulo João Doria in the PSDB presidential elections, Alckmin’s disaffiliation was inevitable, as the two have had a tense relationship since 2018.
There is the possibility of Alckmin joining the PSB, PSD or Solidarity. The São Paulo wing of the PSB carried out research to verify how much a ticket with Alckmin would increase Lula’s vote in the interior of that state, where the ex-governor’s great electoral support is found. However, in the PSB itself, there would be names that contributed more nationally to Lula’s chances, such as his leadership in the Northeast.
The PSD also has politicians who can add without so much rejection, such as the senators participating in the Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry that investigates the actions and negligence of the Bolsonaro government in the face of the pandemic. Lula has already stated that he will only choose his vice after he is officially a candidate for the presidency and that he intends to “build a ticket to win the elections”. Other formulas contributed more to this objective.
There is a cliché that “politics is the art of negotiation”. Of course, politics is that too, but it’s much more than that. In fact, it would be unlikely that Lula would build a ticket with a party companion as his deputy, such as Fernando Haddad, or an ally of a smaller left-wing party, such as Guilherme Boulos (PSOL and MTST) and Manuela D’Ávila (PC do B). .
However, choosing a historical opponent as vice president (and one that adds little votes) would confuse and depoliticize voters, conveying the idea that the denunciation of the coup in 2016 was pure speech, and that it really made no difference whether to elect PT or PSDB. . Worse, it would strengthen Bolsonaro’s narrative that the PSDB is left-wing and would give him survival as a candidate with high chances of running for president. Finally, Michel Temer (PMDB), as vice president, conspired for the coup that overthrew Dilma Rousseff, from the PT. Can Brazil trust that Alckmin, who supported that coup, would be loyal to Lula from 2023 onwards?
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