In yet another day of diplomatic impasse over the crisis in Ukraine, Russia raised its tone even further in its clash with NATO (Western military alliance) over the neighboring country: it threatened to leave the negotiations and, drawing a weapon from the old Cold War , suggested that it might send troops to Venezuela and Cuba.
The two Latin American countries are Vladimir Putin’s main allies in the strategic backyard of the United States, which in turn is putting together a sanctions package aimed at directly hitting the Russian president in the event of military action in Ukraine.
The threats, somewhat exaggerated but consistent with the current tension, were made in an interview this Thursday (13) to Russian channel RTVI by the head of the delegation that negotiated on Monday (10) in Geneva with an American group, Vice Chancellor Sergei Riabkov.
“There’s no reason to sit at the table [com os ocidentais] in the coming days,” he said, as another Russian delegation attended an emergency OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) meeting in Vienna.
The diplomat said that it would not be possible to exclude the deployment of forces in Latin American countries. The echo of this is obvious: in 1962, the Soviet Union wanted to respond to US nuclear missile installations in Turkey by placing a rocket regiment in Cuba.
The incident caused the most famous crisis of the Cold War, with an American naval blockade preventing the arrival of Soviet ships with more weapons, almost leading to a nuclear conflict between the then two superpowers.
None of this seems put in place now, but the mere mention shows the temperature of the crisis. Obviously Riabkov didn’t say that, but it’s not an unrealistic exercise to think that he thought of nuclear-capable missiles a few kilometers off the US coast, to respond to NATO’s alleged intention to do the same with Russia in Eastern Europe.
In addition, Riabkov said Putin was being offered “military options” over the situation in Ukraine, close to where the Russian has deployed more than 100,000 men since November, prompting accusations of US and NATO invasion preparation.
The meeting in Vienna began on somber notes. “It seems that the risk of war in the OSCE area is now greater than ever in the last 30 years,” said Chancellor Zbigniew Rau of Poland, the country that assumed the rotating presidency of the entity that brings together 57 European countries – including Russia and Ukraine. .​
The Russian representative at the entity, Alexander Lukashevitch, said that he still hopes for a diplomatic way out of the crisis, the same as Riabkov and the head of both, Chancellor Sergei Lavrov, had said, although everyone talks about a “dead end” ahead of the involved. “There is no reason for optimism,” said the Kremlin envoy.
This was the third meeting this week on the crisis. After the talks in Geneva, on Wednesday (12) there was a tough round of the NATO-Russia Council, which had not met for two years, in Brussels.
In every conversation, there was an open path for concessions in the form of eventual treaties on intermediate-range weapons, a strategic obsession for the Kremlin, and monitoring of military exercises.
At the same time, Russia made a not-so-subtle signal by mobilizing 3,000 men, tanks and tanks for live ammunition maneuvers in 4 regions, 3 of them near Ukraine. And Democrats in the US Senate have announced that they are preparing a new package of sanctions aimed at hitting Putin if there is military action against his neighbor.
The Kremlin spokesman called the speculation “unacceptable” and reiterated the official position that there was no intention to act. Ambassador Lukashevitch summed up the spirit, however: “Russia is a peace-loving country. But we don’t need peace at any cost. The need to obtain formal guarantees of security for us is unconditional.”
Such assurances were expressed by Putin in conversations with the American Joe Biden and in a formal document, and were rejected by NATO. The Russian wants the military alliance to flow back to its pre-accession borders of ex-Communist countries and refuse to expand — that is, denying the promise made in 2008 to Ukraine and Georgia in that regard.
The Kremlin wants to see a strategic environment restored that, if not allied as in Belarus and now with its presence in the Kazakhstan crisis, is at least neutral, reflecting centuries of concerns about invasions and the presence of adversaries on the borders.
In 2008 and 2014, along with Kiev and Tbilisi, Moscow went to great lengths to destabilize pro-Western governments and prevent them from joining NATO — with the excision of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, and Crimea in Ukraine, both countries are not eligible to join the club because they have territorial conflicts.
The Ukrainian case is even more complex, as Putin has also fomented a civil war in the east of the country, which has become a protectorate of pro-Kremlin rebels. With Kiev’s insinuations of resolving the matter militarily last year, Putin took action and took the opportunity to try to establish a solution to the crisis on his terms.
If the Russian’s ultimatum seemed designed to be rejected, but to force the West to recognize him as a relevant actor and eventually reach an accommodation in Ukraine, the strident tone from side to side has brought the crisis to a dangerous impasse.
The arrival on the scene of the dictatorships of Miguel DÃaz-Canel and Nicolás Maduro may only be theatrical, but it adds an unprecedented flavor so far.
It’s not a casual choice. Cuba was a Soviet base throughout the Cold War and maintains a close relationship with Putin, and Venezuela was armed by the Russians with fighter jets, armored vehicles and anti-aircraft systems. Coincidentally, one member of the Kremlin’s negotiating team is Alexander Fomin, deputy defense minister who for years was the contact for arms supplies to Caracas.
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