Spaniards go to the polls today for municipal and regional elections, which will be a prelude to parliamentary elections due at the end of the year, in which opinion polls predict a defeat for Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and a return to power of the right.

Elections are being held today in all the country’s municipalities, as well as for the selection of local governments and parliaments in 12 of Spain’s 17 autonomous regions.

“If the left does better than predicted and manages to retain control of the majority of the regional governments at stake (…) it will show that the parliamentary elections will be very lopsided and will be good for its chances of staying in power” at the end of the year, Federico Sadi, an analyst at the Eurasiagroup think tank, estimated in research published this week.

But if the polls, which predict a shift to the right, prove correct, the gains in the districts will give the head of the main opposition, Alberto Núñez Feijo, who is the leader of the Popular Party (PP, conservative) the necessary “qualification”. to win the parliamentary elections in the fall, continues the analyst.

Prime Minister since 2018, Sánchez faces this dual election showdown with several burdens: the erosion of power, rising inflation — though it is much lower in Spain than in most other EU countries — and the great reduction in purchasing power that results from it.

His government’s image has also been tarnished by repeated crises that have rocked the alliance between his party, the Socialist Workers’ Party of Spain (PSOE), and its uneasy governing coalition partner, the radical-left Podemos party.

Vulnerable

Feijo has gone out of his way to turn these elections into a nationwide referendum on Pedro Sanchez, whom he describes as dependent on the far left, but also on separatist Basque and Catalan parties, on whom his minority government in parliament depends for to vote on his reforms.

“I am asking for the votes of a Spain that wants to end ‘Sançism’ from Sunday,” Feijo called on Friday night at his final election rally in Madrid, using the term he coined to describe his policies. prime minister.

Sanchez, for his part, based his election campaign on the account of his government’s work, mainly in the economic sector and in that of combating drought and managing water resources, an issue that is increasingly coming to the fore in Spain.

“Social-democratic policies suit Spain better than neoliberal policies (because) we manage the economy much better,” the Spanish prime minister said on Friday night, concluding his election campaign in Barcelona, ​​in northeastern Spain.

Sanchez is most vulnerable in this election, as of the 12 regions renewing their parliaments and governments, the Socialists rule 10, either directly or as part of a coalition.

The number of districts the PP manages to wrest from the Socialists will depend on the public’s perception of whether Feijo won in this first round and his arrival in Moncloa, the seat of Spain’s central government at the end of year is inevitable.

Scam

However, Feijo has his own problems. The main one is Vox, the far-right party that constitutes the third force in the parliament and aspires to become an essential partner of the People’s Party in governing the regions and then at the national level. Moreover, since last year, the PP and Vox jointly govern Castile and León, a region in which no elections are currently held.

Aware of the fact that the parliamentary elections will be decided in the center, Feijo has taken care since his ascension to the leadership of the PP a year ago to project the image of a moderate party and thereby keep Vox at bay. So a very good Vox result in many constituencies would be dangerous for him.

The election campaign that ended on Friday night has been marred in recent days by several cases of fraud, in this case the alleged buying of postal votes, mostly involving elected officials or Socialist candidates.

It is difficult to assess the impact of these scandals. But Sanchez, who has made good governance one of the priorities of his action, opposing it to the obscenities of previous right-wing governments, sure didn’t need that.