In front of the presidential palace in Anchor, The Erdogan he celebrates while thousands of people cheer him on waving Turkish flags. “Democracy won”, announces. None of the 85 million Turks have lost, he says initially. A bit later again accuses the opposition of links with terrorist organizations.

The crises did not harm the president

Erdogan beat Kemal Kilicdaroglu, consolidating his power once again after 20 years in power. The currency crisis, the mismanagement of the February earthquake devastation, and the crackdown on government opponents, none of it could ultimately hurt Erdogan. The opposition, which hoped to win the election and begin the democratization of Turkey, complained that the election campaign was unfair. Despite the defeat, Kilicdaroglu believes that the elections show that the people want the “change of the authoritarian government”.

Observers fear that Erdogan will rule even more autocratically in the future after he re-legitimized his power and Europe and the US. they must now continue negotiations with a difficult NATO partner, which is playing an additional mediator role in the Ukraine war.

Turkey’s future looks ominous

Erdogan also owes his electoral success to the support of an Islamist-nationalist alliance, which could also influence his policy in the future. “Erdogan has changed the character of the state, turning it from secular-nationalist to Islamist-nationalist. And this is what he will continue to pursue,” says Asli Hercan Aksoy of the Center for Turkish Studies.

Erdogan’s triumph also has a symbolic aspect: his victory coincided exactly with the tenth anniversary of the anti-government protests in Gezi. In the spring of 2013, young people in particular had revolted against Erdogan’s policies across the country. Erdogan, still prime minister at the time, had suppressed the protests.

The opposition looks with horror at Erdogan’s partners. With the Islamist Kurdish Hüda Par and the Islamist Yenid Refah, Erdoğan brought into Parliament two parties that oppose the rights of LGBTQI people and women. Hüda Par, for example, wants to enforce the protection of the traditional family from “deviant” ideologies, while advocating the separation of boys and girls at all levels of education.

The biggest challenge for Erdogan after the elections will be the economy. According to experts, inflation of 44% is exacerbated by the fact that, against common economic logic, Erdogan insists on keeping interest rates low. However, Erdogan managed to convince his supporters that he is not responsible for the economic situation. Economics professor Selva Demiralp wrote in an article that if Erdogan does not return to conventional economic policies, it will be very difficult to undo the damage that has already been done.

The change of tactics cost the opposition

Also contributing to Erdogan’s success was the fact that the election campaign was unfair from the start, according to international election observers, who say Erdogan had “unjustified advantages”. Most of the media is controlled by Erdogan and the limited visibility of the opposition was mostly done in a negative way. In addition, Erdogan distributed generous campaign gifts that were covered by state coffers. He portrayed the opposition as terrorists and the interior minister put pressure on independent election observers, several of whom were attacked.

The opposition, on the other hand, failed to convince the majority that Kilicdaroglu is a better alternative to Erdogan. The first round was followed by conciliatory rhetoric, but then, in a desperate attempt to win over nationalist voters, Kilicdaroglu turned against refugees and was supported by a right-wing nationalist politician. This shift had a negative impact on his popularity, especially among Kurdish voters. Although the pro-Kurdish HDP again sided with Kilicdaroglu, Kurdish turnout was lower than in the first round.

Syrian refugees relieved

Although the new parliament is the most nationalist in Turkey’s history, the 3.4 million Syrians in the country should have been relieved after Erdogan’s victory. Although the Turkish president has also announced that he will expel Syrian refugees, observers do not expect significant resettlement. Erdogan is well aware that medium-sized Turkish businessmen in Gaziantep and southeastern Turkey need Syrian refugees as a workforce, Aksoy explains. “These businesses, after all, form the backbone of his client system.”