The Rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin – or the “march for freedom”, as he describes it – does not look like it will turn into “Ten days that shook the world”.

Indeed, the mutiny-coup seems to have the same characteristics as the failed coup to overthrow the last Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1991, writes, among others, “Poltico”. At least the KGB and Communist hardliners who tried to overthrow Gorbachev had the temerity to launch their campaign from Moscow, understanding that whoever controls the capital controls Russia.

Instead, Wagner’s forces are several kilometers away. Unfortunately for Prigozhin, some key allies and friends have drifted away, including General Sergei Surovikin, infamous in the West for the destruction of the Syrian city of Aleppo. Surovikin, a former commander of Russian ground forces in Ukraine, is popular among the country’s ultranationalists, and his demotion last year disappointed them. On Friday, he called on Wagner’s mercenaries not to oppose Russia’s military leadership and return to the barracks.

“I urge you to stop“, he said in a video message. “The enemy is just waiting for the internal political situation in our country to deteriorate».

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said the Wagner chief’s mutiny was “unlikely to succeed” given that Sergei Surovikin had denounced his call for rebellion.

And some other key “players” and security services have clearly sided with the Kremlin. Among them is the FSB intelligence service, which called Wagner’s fighters “not to carry out Prigozhin’s criminal and treasonous orders” and to take measures to arrest him themselves.

However, some key actors and military forces seem to remain passive – as their colleagues did in 1991 – not wanting to find themselves on the wrong side of history. Some prominent Russian politicians are also mute. There is no doubt that Prigozhin’s mutiny amounts to the biggest political crisis Putin has faced as Russia’s leader. The big question is whether the fall of Prigozhin will set the stage for the possible “destabilization” of the Russian president.